Thin AK high calldown NL600

[w_alloy]

Opponent here is loose (like 60/15) and loves to bet when checked to (78%) over around 50 hands. His wtsd is low (~20), and his fold to cbet is high (~65), but these stats converge slowly and are thus unreliable. My only reads are stats as I dont remember any hands he has played. 6 handed. Effective stacks 800.

I raise AKo to 24 in MP, Button calls, all else fold.

Flop is JcTc2d (I have no club). I lead 3/4 pot villian calls.

Turn Td I check villian pots it I call.

River 3h I check he pots (like 350) I call.

I figure he has JT or a missed draw most of the time, with sometimes a naked T (I think he value bets this for less most of the time, and might fold the flop anyways) and sometimes a raw bluff which I usually beat.

[aceswild83]

wow

[Lucky]

just make hands against this guy

[FlyingStart]

[ QUOTE ]
My only reads are stats as I dont remember any hands he has played.

[/ QUOTE ]

Spewing for an image. Yes

You might have been right, but I like the game to be HU and have very good reads before making calldowns like this.

If I did have good reads though, this board and this action is a good candidate for a calldown since the flop has so many draws and both turn and river bricks.

Making a calldown like this and have him turn over 22 or something will put you on permatilt for several days, so beware.

[ArturiusX]

The only time you should ever be doing this is when you know the guy so well his stats are irrelovent. You cant explain a player with stats alone.

[w_alloy]

For those of you who think this is bad (everyone?), how bad is it? Say final pot is 1200, half of that is mine.

[FlyingStart]

Your post should have some options for ^negative EV of 250-350 or something like that. Also the "turn and river call are +EV" option is not entirely correct because turn and river calls are dependant. If he bets the river like he did, the % of time he is bluffing increases IMO. But you dont know that when you call the turn, which is what makes the turn call so ugly. You are setting yourself up to a world of hurt.

[Salerosa]

You are going to be pissed when he flips over 55...

I agree with the above poster who said to just make hands against this type of player. Its a tempting board, but calling down with high cards is rarely going to work out in the long run.

[fslexcduck]

[ QUOTE ]
You are going to be pissed when he flips over 55...


[/ QUOTE ]

he doesn't have 55 very often.

[jacknine]

[ QUOTE ]
his fold to cbet is high

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I lead 3/4 pot villian calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why check-call the turn?

If you really think he has noth-dot-noth, wouldn't he fold to a fair-sized bet here? Sounds to me like a cheaper way to find out if he's got nothing than to c/c pot on turn+riv.