Max value for Mansion hedge (including promos)

[PLOlover]

Well I'm gonna do this when it resumes Monday or Tuesday.

I'm gonna hedge so let's say it's worth about $450.

Now add in a referral bonus at Mansion of $90.
Now add in SIA $250 referral of $250.

So we've got a $790 value here, assuming you don't have an account at Mansion or SIA.

So basically I'm assuming this is max value, right?

[mcslu]

Yeah, don't think you get any better than that. Only slight problem is that the line at SIA is at 4.0, thus you don't get to hedge the Mansion bet fully. However, you should be pretty unlucky I guess not to win. Miami winning by 4 points is the worst scenario.

BTW, I have done the same as you

[bgoalie35]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, don't think you get any better than that. Only slight problem is that the line at SIA is at 4.0, thus you don't get to hedge the Mansion bet fully. However, you should be pretty unlucky I guess not to win. Miami losing by 4 points is the worst scenario.

BTW, I have done the same as you

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP. If Miami wins by 4, you win your hedge bet. If Miami loses by 4, Pitt fails to cover so you lose at Mansion, and you push your Miami -4 hedge bet. You get $0 (not including the referral bonuses).

[smak]

I think SIA also has a 10% or 20% bonus. Not sure if you have to bet a certain amount.

Does SIA not take neteller? I can't find it.

-smak-

[Sand]

SIA does take Neteller.

[MicroBob]

Right, I got the SIA 10% on my $500 deposit as well.

I'm not sure if I have to clear that as well for the $50 bonus that they gave me there in order to cash-out.

Doesn't make a huge difference to me. I can run through the clearing requirement they have if necessary.

But I think it's relevant for those who are thinking of doing this.


Regarding the hedge:
Miami winning by 4 works out just fine for you. Miami is getting +4 in this bet.


Here's what I'm probably doing:

1. $1100 on PIT -5 via Mansion

2. Make a few $10 bets at SIA on various games to get through part of the $500 clearing requirement for $250 CCU bonus.

3. $320 or so on MIA -4 at SIA


- If PIT wins by 6 or more: Win $1000 on PIT at Mansion. Lose $320 bet on Miami at SIA, but get $250 bonus for -$70 on SIA = +$930

- If PIT wins by exactly 5: Push on Mansion (refund). Lose $70 on SIA = -$70

- If PIT wins by exactly 4: Refund on Mansion. Push on SIA bet plus $250 bonus = +$250

If PIT wins by less than 3 or Miami wins: Refund on Mansion. Win
bet on SIA for $290 + $250 bonus = +$540



This is not the highest EV.
It's just a semi-interesting way of doing it.

So I'm probably going to be +$540 or +$930.
With a slight chance that I'll only be +$250 or -$90.


It's a free freaking $1100 bet PLUS an easy $250 bonus at SIA so it's +EV no matter which way you go.

[fastandbulbous]

I need a SIA ref.
Please PM me

[air]

Let me know if someone can refer me to Mansion & SIA?

[thing85]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me know if someone can refer me to Mansion & SIA?

[/ QUOTE ]

Check your PMs.

[TheProdigy]

I think you have to bet 500 on SIA to be able to get the 250 back, right? Or is there a better deal?