Pittsburgh vs. Miami GAME ANALYSIS

BobJoeJim · #1 08-29-2006, 01:15 PM

With the Mansion promotion a lot of people have a very obvious interest in this game, but so far all the talk is about how the bonus works, and whether to hedge, and whatnot. Let's actually talk football now!

How would you handicap this game? How likely do you think it is that the non-hedgers will win the $1000? If you didn't have the cash for the promo, which team would you put $50 on?

thomasperfecto · #2 08-29-2006, 01:25 PM

I live in England and know nothing about NFL but I chatted with some America collegue's of mine today about it.
They said that two teams are pretty evenly matched usually but that the money would be on the Steelers as they're playing at home and that gives them a big advantage.

Not a great analysis but it's all I have and if I only $50 to play with it would be on the steelers

136913691369 · #3 08-29-2006, 01:29 PM

I just received a magazine in the mail from "Vegas Experts" which I think is sponsored by nine.com. Their handicappers said go with Miami (there was no mention of a point spread).

I'm not hedging this bet though anyway.

SoloAJ · #4 08-29-2006, 01:32 PM

I was thinking about taking Miami moneyline in this one if I decided to bet it. That was before I saw the promo. Now I'm just letting it ride on the Steelers because I'm going for the full grand. Go Stillers.

Note: Miami could definitely be heavily overhyped this year. Their defense may or may not be good this year and the offense should be allright, but who knows. They finished strong last year, yes....but they did it mostly against lame teams...Steelers are looking to come out strong this season.

Read: I see it as a tossup at -5 or so.

thomasperfecto · #5 08-29-2006, 01:40 PM

Dolphins Average Team Rankings Steelers
20.7 Total Offense 12.5
20.1 Total Defense 11.5
16.4 Passing Offense 16.8
16.9 Passing Defense 12.1
16.2 Rushing Offense 9.7
14.7 Rushing Defense 4.8
18.0 Receiving Offense 18.3
19.3 Receiving Defense 15.0
9.3 Punting 25.7
15.2 Return 20.0
23.5 Kicking 22.3

No idea what any of that means but steelers seem to come out on top

Levarkin · #6 08-29-2006, 10:36 PM

I prefer the Dolphins side here. The Steelers lost some key players in the off-season, the most critical being Randle El, von Oelhoffen, Hope, and Bettis, though at least the last hole is capably enough filled by Staley. The Steelers may get the stepped up production they need from replacements such as Cedrick Wilson, but that could take time. The Dolphins only got stronger, adding a real starting QB in Culpepper, leaving them with no obvious weaknesses.

The win streak Miami put together at the end of the 2005 season was pretty impressive, and while they played some weak teams at home, they were able to go to Oakland, San Diego, and New England, and come out with a win each time. They were 7-point, 13.5-point, and 6.5-point dogs respectively in those games, but squeaked out wins. Nick Saban really seems to have this team going in the right direction.

I hate making assumptions about Week 1, but this seems like a case of a line that's influenced by the perception of the Steelers as Super Bowl champs, not as a strong but slightly weakened team that will have stiff competition in their conference and division if they're looking to repeat last year's success. I like the Dolphins to put up quite a bit of resistance, and give them a respectable shot of winning. I don't like the Steelers on this side of the 3, and thus think the Dolphins the better bet.

Punker · #7 08-30-2006, 11:23 AM

My rating system had Pitt as a 3.5 pt favorite.

Morphling29 · #8 08-30-2006, 05:19 PM

If not for the mansion bet I like the Miami moneyline. Miami D could be one of the toughest matchups for the Steelers Offense. Everyone knows about the Pitt power running game, but when the pass its mostly screens and trick plays downfield. Those are busted by discipline and speed which Miami has at all 3 levels. Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas, and how everyone overlooks the addition of Will Allen at cb. This guy is a future star at db.
On the other side of the ball, Miami has some underrated players such as Chambers, Booker, and even Welker. Constantly blitzing Culpepper will turn into a couple big TD's. I like Miami 21-13.......but special teams always messes everything up.

CharlieDontSurf · #9 08-30-2006, 05:33 PM

The Bronco's and Seahawks D were light years ahead of Mia and they tore both those D's to shreads...don't see how Mia D is gonna be much of a challenge unless hines ward doesnt play and Big Ben is shakey in the pocket.

The bigger question is how well Pitt does at shutting down Mia offense