Theoretically, How Deep Before I Consider Folding This?

[Roadstar]

50NL 6 max

Table is Loose Passive.

Image - I could be seen as slightly LAG because I open raise in position more, I raise to punish EP limpers (at least 3 guys limp in EP on a regular basis) and I cbet if I'm the preflop raiser almost always - and these guys call preflop raise and fold. Not sure if guys notice but I still play big pots with big hands.

Stacks Hero ~$180, Villain around $100

Hero gets K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG and raises to $2, folds to SB who calls (he is LPP, passive postflop too), BB folds.

Flop K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villain checks, Hero bets $4.5, Villain calls

Turn 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villain checks, Hero bets $10, Villain raises all-in for $90, Hero must call to probably chop yes?

How deep before we would remotely consider folding here?

[terp]

a few considerations....

opponent's bluff frequency
your odds of hitting your one-outer (if you are in fact behind)
actual pot odds (assume you are splitting)

probably somewhat results oriented but you're usually better checking the turn here - get value from hands you beat when you bet the river.

[Roadstar]

Why should we be checking turn, against a passive player with the second nuts, I'm trying to build the pot and hope to be paid off by any pocket pair 33-JJ?!

As for the considerations, I'll try to quantify this a little:

bluff freq - I say probably 5%

Combos - behind 1 combo, split with 15 combos (KQ, KJ-K9 lets say).

So 5% pick off bluff, 6% against 22, 89% chop chop

So EV = 0.05(200)[bluff], 0.89(0) [chop chop], 0.06(-100)[lose]

EV = +4 so essentially breakeven or slightly negative after rake?

I guess a bigger allin would skew the probabilities a bit more to 22?

Thoughts welcome! Thx

[ QUOTE ]
a few considerations....

opponent's bluff frequency
your odds of hitting your one-outer (if you are in fact behind)
actual pot odds (assume you are splitting)

probably somewhat results oriented but you're usually better checking the turn here - get value from hands you beat when you bet the river.

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[MikeyPatriot]

D00ds, did you guys miss this hand in BBV???

Seriously, though, this is such a fast call. You'd have to be so deep that calling this would [censored] up your bankroll pretty bad.

You should be checking or check/calling the turn here because only the very worst idiots are calling without a K or 22 here. This will either get your river value bet called more often or will allow you to induce a bluff.

[maccamack]

You're worried about quad 2's? I don't know how deep you'd have to be to fold this, but it would have to be huge.

I think Doyle Brunson said something like: 'play like quads don't exist' -and he's been in some mighty deep games.

BTW -call.

[Morrek]

Fold

[The White Rabbit]

Call. This is a chop most of the time and a bluff way more often than it's quads.

I don't fold it for anything below 500BB.

[Ness3]

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Fold

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[Three Sigma]

Clearly he turned up 22 or you wouldn't be posting. There are about 45 possible hands left with a king and one hand left with 22. You have to call up to about 45 times half the pot or $600.

[Roadstar]

O RLY? I know where the BBV forum is if I were looking to post for sympathy. And how did you get **45** combos with a king? Please do share.

[ QUOTE ]
Clearly he turned up 22 or you wouldn't be posting. There are about 45 possible hands left with a king and one hand left with 22. You have to call up to about 45 times half the pot or $600.

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