Overpair on Paired board - RANT

[True]

Hero raises KK, everyone folds, bb calls

Flop - 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Villain bets...

Villain has 5-x or a PP about 90% of the time.

I really think it's absolutely ludicrous to believe that Villain has "non showdownable air" or "a monster" any more than 20% of the time.

Sorry ILP, this time you are way off bat. Mossberg agrees with you only because he is results orientated and lost the hand.

True

[milesdyson]

i agree

[Hobbs.]

[ QUOTE ]
i agree

[/ QUOTE ]

[Leader]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i agree

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm still not raising the flop though

[MrEngenic]

With no history, this is a 9 or a non showdownable hand very very often.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
With no history, this is a 9 or a non showdownable hand very very often.

[/ QUOTE ]
standard line with a 9 is c/c, c/r from almost every donk in the sea. standard line with 22 33 44 5x 77 88 TT is to donk the flop. and gtfo with "he'll fold A-high"

this quote is pretty ridiculous. "nonshowdownable" hand? hardly ever!

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
With no history, this is a 9 or a non showdownable hand very very often.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it's a 9 very often. Many, many online players would auto-check trips here, planning to checkraise either the turn or the flop.

I don't know how often it's a non-showdownable hand, but the 0.5 AF suggests to me that this will be infrequent as well.

[MrEngenic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
With no history, this is a 9 or a non showdownable hand very very often.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it's a 9 very often. Many, many online players would auto-check trips here, planning to checkraise either the turn or the flop.

I don't know how often it's a non-showdownable hand, but the 0.5 AF suggests to me that this will be infrequent as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, when a passive player donks a paired flop you put him on a pocket pair or A high?

[milesdyson]

mrengenic,

everyone (correctly) puts him on two pair with the unpaired board card most often. so, on the 995 flop, his most likely hand is 5x where x does not equal 9.

[MrEngenic]

[ QUOTE ]
mrengenic,

everyone (correctly) puts him on two pair with the unpaired board card most often. so, on the 995 flop, his most likely hand is 5x where x does not equal 9.

[/ QUOTE ]

My gut feeling is that he is on air or a 9 but I don't really know for sure maybe I should start taking notes of situations like this and keep a record. Is there a way to check this in PT?