Movie Lines 8/25

[chachi]

Opening 3 day weekend box office for Beerfest
Over 9.5 million +100
Under 9.5 million -116

Opn 3 day wkd box off. for How to Eat Fried Worms
Over 5 million +150
Under 5 million -166

Opening 3 day weekend box office for Idlewild
Over 6 million -134
Under 6 million +118

Opening 3 day weekend box office for Invincible
Over 15 million +129
Under 15 million -145

[cthomer5000]

(copied over from the Material Girls thread)

I've never bet a movie line, but Ive been following box office openings extremely closely for 25 weeks now. I love Idlewild over 6 million for this week. 6 movies made over 6 million last weekend, and this is a movie in an opening week against some relatively weak competition. I'll need to check the theater count, but as long as this is in wide release, i think it clears 6 million without a problem. The last two movies I would compare it to (im going to go with "black" pop culture movies here) made over 9 (Waist Deep) and 12 (Get Rich Or Die Tryin) million in their opening weekends. Given that we are talking about a very popular music act starring in this movie (OutKast, whose last album sold 11 million copies), i think the comparison to Get Rich Or Die Tryin' (which starred 50 cent) may be closer.

I also think 15 million for Invincible is a tad high, but that should be a much closer outcome. Idlewild I honestly think makes 8 million or more, so I see 6 as a damn near certainty (again, unless i find out beforehand that we're talking a pretty low theatre count).

This is my first shot at this... so we'll see if I've got a clue come Monday.

[chachi]

Here's the thing...Idlewild is on only 900 screens, so it will need to do $6667 per screen to hhit the over. Also is a musical...not a black pop culture/hiphop/gangbanger movie. This will make a huge difference. At a current price of +151, I'm leaning towards the under here.

I like the over on Invincible, but only at a good price.

Beerfest at 9.5 MM on 2800+ screens is the wild card...still working on this one.

[playersare]

also, this may not be that important, but since "Speakerboxxx" was a double album, all sales count twice as far as Neilsen Soundscan is concerned. so in actuality, 5.5M bought the album, not 11M.

I'm pretty sure no rap album has broken 10 mill (net actual units) since [censored] MC Hammer.

[cthomer5000]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's the thing...Idlewild is on only 900 screens, so it will need to do $6667 per screen to hhit the over. Also is a musical...not a black pop culture/hiphop/gangbanger movie. This will make a huge difference. At a current price of +151, I'm leaning towards the under here.

I like the over on Invincible, but only at a good price.

Beerfest at 9.5 MM on 2800+ screens is the wild card...still working on this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

900 screens? Holy lord. That was my original qualifier, and now i definitely agree on the under. That's far fewer screens than I was anticipating.

[cthomer5000]

Quick question: what is a good source for finding out how many screens a movie is opening on? I've never had a reliable one.

[chachi]

Here's one of the places to get screen counts...

http://www.ercboxoffice.com/erc/repo...eschedule.html

[SumZero]

[ QUOTE ]
Opening 3 day weekend box office for Beerfest
Over 9.5 million +100
Under 9.5 million -116


[/ QUOTE ]

Under (2800+ theaters, but previews look pretty bad and there are other comedies out to compete)

[ QUOTE ]

Opn 3 day wkd box off. for How to Eat Fried Worms
Over 5 million +150
Under 5 million -166


[/ QUOTE ]

Under (1800 theaters, previews look horrible and not a family movie that parents will enjoy/tolerate)

[ QUOTE ]

Opening 3 day weekend box office for Idlewild
Over 6 million -134
Under 6 million +118


[/ QUOTE ]

Under (900+ theaters, too few screens and too unusual [musical] to do well on opening)

[ QUOTE ]

Opening 3 day weekend box office for Invincible
Over 15 million +129
Under 15 million -145

[/ QUOTE ]

Over (2400 theaters, this is the movie that will do best this weekend, and with football starting up I think it will do well)

[scorer]

what books are offering these lines??

[cthomer5000]

[ QUOTE ]
what books are offering these lines??

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pinnacle sports