25NL 6max: Set + OESD facing push

kazana · #1 08-19-2006, 07:24 AM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($24.75)
BB ($32.40)
UTG : Villain ($27.85) Stats: 23/11/1 over only 50 hands.
MP ($37.25)
Button ($60.25)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Villain raises to $1, MP calls $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.90, BB calls $0.75.

Flop: ($4) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets $1.65, BB folds, Villain calls $1.65, MP calls $1.65.

Turn: ($8.95) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $6.25, Villain raises to $25.2, MP folds, Hero ??.

I had to think long and hard, and I'm still not sure if this is an easy call/fold...
What would you do?

PS: I know, flop bet is uber-meh, feel free to criticize...

ticks · #2 08-19-2006, 07:31 AM

Preflop is standard.
Flop bet is pretty bad.
Turn is a call.

You should never consider folding a set.
Exceptions:
- If you are 200bb deep
- If there is four to a flush
- If there is four to a straight on the river and villain is a nit

Jigsaws · #3 08-19-2006, 07:36 AM

Math problem, it seems. It obviously looks like you're behind a made straight. Pot is $40.40 to you, and you have to call 18.95, or about 2 to 1. All remaining 5, 6, 8 + one 7 = 10 definite outs. A nine probably is an out for the split, and a four probably isn't an out. I'd add two for those two together, so 12 outs = ~24% to make a hand that either wins or splits on the river. I guess that makes it a fold, though I wouldn't like it.

However, if you factor in the chances of a bluff or villain being a two-pair donk, it's probably a call. Very close either way.

Why bet so little on the flop?

kazana · #4 08-19-2006, 07:42 AM

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Why bet so little on the flop?

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I'm wondering myself. Typically, I'd bet 2/3 pot here. I played this hand 3 days ago, so I'm not sure what I thought.
Probably, I wanted to see if villain has an high pair (in which case he should've been raising) or flopped a set (ditto).

After those calls I felt pretty confident we've got at least one drawer and maybe one player with overcards out there.

[ QUOTE ]
However, if you factor in the chances of a bluff or villain being a two-pair donk, it's probably a call. Very close either way.

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I doubt it's a two pair, villain seems too tight to be raising UTG with hands like 87s, etc.

ticks · #5 08-19-2006, 09:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt it's a two pair, villain seems too tight to be raising UTG with hands like 87s, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

But it could be 55, 66, TT+

Finite_Risk · #6 08-19-2006, 10:34 AM

Instacall vs preflop raiser with those stats

kazana · #7 08-19-2006, 10:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Instacall vs preflop raiser with those stats

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Could you give some reasons, please? Is it because of the chance of him having TT+?

kazana · #8 08-19-2006, 10:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I doubt it's a two pair, villain seems too tight to be raising UTG with hands like 87s, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

But it could be 55, 66, TT+

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On the other hand, he seemed pretty solid. Do you think i's likely that he'll push on a 4-straight turn without having the upper end straight?
I think this was the difficult part for me to determine...

ticks · #9 08-19-2006, 10:58 AM

First you say...
[ QUOTE ]
I doubt it's a two pair, villain seems too tight to be raising UTG with hands like 87s, etc.

[/ QUOTE ]
Then...
[ QUOTE ]
On the other hand, he seemed pretty solid. Do you think i's likely that he'll push on a 4-straight turn without having the upper end straight?

[/ QUOTE ]
So you dont think he will raise with a connector UTG.
Fair enough.
That leaves ONE hand that you think he has: 99.
You cant really be that sure in this spot.
You only have 50 hands on him.
And villain sure took a strange line on the flop with his vulnerable overpair.
I think 88/66/55 is more likely.
Turn hits, suddenly the board is scary and villain hits the panic button.

AngryJohnny · #10 08-19-2006, 10:58 AM

With those stats and being UTG it seem likely villan has an overpair, the only had that I could put villan on that beats hero is 99. I think there is no question that hero has to call with his set. Even if hero is indeed behind to 99 we still have good outs to fill up. In the unlikely event that villan has raised UTG with one of the other hands that beats us, I don't mind paying him off holding a hand like three sevens with an open ended strait draw. I probably would have made a pot sized bet on the flop to try and take it down right there.