AQ hand, $475 sat. What are my options?

[PrayingMantis]

Here's a hand that is bothering me for a few days now. It's from a $475 sat to an EPT event. First 9 win about 9K package each. 17 left out of about 200, I'm below average.

The EP raiser was playing very LAGishly early on, making biggish calls too, especially from LP, but since he lost a big pot and the money is getting closer he became pretty tight. He seems like a solid player.

I don't have much of a read about button, he is relatively new to this table. I assume he isn't bad.

I have been playing fairly tight recently, picking my spots carefully. The blinds are going up slowly, and there's a lot of play in this format.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG (t28344)
UTG+1 (t22700)
MP1 (t64387)
MP2 (t39497)
MP3 (t8884)
CO (t12130)
Button (t28252)
SB (t33175)
Hero (t19752)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t2400</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Button calls t2400, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t1600.

Flop: (t6800) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>

What is your move/plan? And how about my PF call?

[AceLuby]

PF call is fine, now you hit your hand. I think I lead out and hope to get raised. Lead for ~4k and push to resistance. The only hands I'm really afraid of is AK or TT.

[Halo7]

Yeah, I think the PF call is fine, I would C/R all in on the flop and hope you aren't really unlucky with him having AK, AA or TT (or ATs maybe). If he checks behind on the flop, it depends what comes on the turn as far as action to take. I assume from your tone you end up going out to AK. Just bad luck IMO and not much you could do about it.

I guess if you wanted to be weak tight, then bet 5K on the flop and fold to a push and still have 13 BB or so to play on.

Halo7

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
I would C/R all in on the flop and hope you aren't really unlucky with him having AK, AA or TT (or ATs maybe).

[/ QUOTE ]

You think he's calling my c/r with AJ (if it's in his range)? KK? Or folding AK? What do i achieve with this c/r? I'm not trying to be argumentative, just asking.

[Bakes]

I lead and fold to a raise.

[Halo7]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would C/R all in on the flop and hope you aren't really unlucky with him having AK, AA or TT (or ATs maybe).

[/ QUOTE ]

You think he's calling my c/r with AJ (if it's in his range)? KK? Or folding AK? What do i achieve with this c/r? I'm not trying to be argumentative, just asking.

[/ QUOTE ]

With a C/R you accomplish the goal of getting more $$ in the pot when you have the best hand. If you lead out, you won't get any more money from anything that doesn't have you beat. If he calls with KK or QQ or AJ, then that is just a bonus. I originally thought it was heads up so lets go through the possible scenarios:

1. You check, PFR Bets, Button folds.
In this spot you just have to fear AK, AA, and TT from the PFR. If you are saying the PFR is tight enough that you don't like this flop, then you should be folding preflop. If not, then you should be happy getting it all in vs his range since he is c-betting with a lot of hands here that you can beat.

2. You check, PFR bets, Button calls.
This one is a little scarier since he could be flat calling with a monster like ATs or TT or AA, but he could be doing a lot of different things here. I still like the C/R all in against them both since they will both need a really strong hand to call.

3. You check, PFR checks, Button Bets. I still like the C/R on this one too since PFR is saying "I don't like this flop" and Button could bet with a ton of different hands hoping the A scared you both into folding.

4. You check, PFR bets, Button Raises all in. This is the tough one. It would depend a lot on your read on the button and if he is someone who can make a play here with less than AQ. If he is a semi tight who raises mainly when he has hands, I can see a fold here, but it depends a lot on the players.

I guess what it all boils down to for me here is if you don't like a flop like this one, then why are you calling the PFR at all?

Halo7

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess what it all boils down to for me here is if you don't like a flop like this one, then why are you calling the PFR at all?

[/ QUOTE ]

I wish poker was that simple. Problem is that it isn't. AQ is a tough hand to play here to begin with with this particular action PF and structure, and I knew it when I made the PF call. I knew I might very well find myslef in a tricky spot. I usualy don't try to avoid tricky spots just because they are tricky, but it might be true that in such a spot at a sat it's better simply to avoid it. In any case I don't agree with a line of reasoning that says something like "if you don't like this flop why call PF at all, that's the flop you're waiting for etc". Good players should have an ability to reevaluate their situation constantly, and even (in some cases, not necessarily here) make a laydown after seeing a flop they were supposed to "like".

[PrayingMantis]

[ QUOTE ]
PF call is fine, now you hit your hand. I think I lead out and hope to get raised. Lead for ~4k and push to resistance. The only hands I'm really afraid of is AK or TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you are saying I should hope to get raised because he is raising PF with enough hands that are behind me now but with which he will still raise me when I lead (with a pretty short stack) into 2 players, including an EP raiser, when there's an ace on the flop? I'm not sure I follow you.

[whynot?]

i like it so far - i lead for 4500 and only fold if both stay in to a reraise. if both call, i reassess on the turn. if only one calls i jam. if i only get one reraise i have to call and assess on turn

[adanthar]

leading out sucks sooooooo much, even worse so in a sat where you're marginal enough to need every chip.

c/something (probably call), push a blank or heart turn.