(Kinda General) TAG Min-raises Turn ----> His range is???

[FoldEqu1ty]

Villain is typically TAGish - 28/10/2 after 200hands
Assume Party SSNL, say 100NL, 100bb stacks


Preflop: Hero is MP with XY. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $1, Hero calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($4) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $1</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls $3.

Turn: ($12) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $16</font>


VILLAIN'S RANGE (%):
Straight -
Trips -
Two pair -
AA /AK -
Top Pair mid/low kicker -
Other / Air -

[FoldEqu1ty]

^^^^^^^^^^
I don't really know myself, so I won't clutter this thread with a poor attempt.

[carnivalhobo]

well he may have tag stats but he isnt good, the minbet and minraise are clear signs of poor play. The flop lead for 1 makes me think draw, i think he has JT a high percentage of the time with 44 being the rest.

[cambraceres]

We're looking at air, cbet flop into a turn minraise with a relative blank = Air

[FoldEqu1ty]

[ QUOTE ]
.... The flop lead for 1 makes me think draw, i think he has JT a high percentage of the time with 44 being the rest.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
We're looking at air, cbet flop into a turn minraise with a relative blank = Air

[/ QUOTE ]

This about sums up my thoughts here - totally divided. I really struggle to get an idea where I stand.

[gimmetheloot]

these usually seem to be weak pairs or draws on the flop that hit a 2 pr or completed the draw w/ the turn c/minraise.
I dont know if I have ever seen a set played this way.
I also dont see it as air too often.
I fold this without at least K9

[nuts]

That really looks like JT I think, or maybe 44 or a turned two pair (with K). I think KQ is out, as are the high pp (no pf raise), unless he was going for a limp rr.

I don't think it's air, you've played abc and he'd need a very good read to try the min c/r to push you out.

I think youre probably beat here.

[Vincent]

Knowing what Hero has may help us figure out villain's hand.

[c_strong]

Good post - I like not knowing hero's hand as it encourages people to focus on what villain's range is.

This is pretty weirdly played by villain but my stab is:

Straight - 45
Very likely. He tries to price himself in on the flop, but calls hero's raise closing the action. Standard donk c/r minraise when hits. Inherently more likely than 44 (i.e. 16 ways to make the hand as against 3, although the offsuit ones should be discounted).

Trips - 35
Also very likely (only 44 not KK or QQ). In this case the $1 bet was a weak lead to induce action. This is probably more consistent with the action than a straight, but less ways to make the hand etc.

Two pair - 10
Unlikely, but K9s or Q9s are possible hands he might limp UTG and play this way on the flop and turn.

AA /AK - 5
Just possible a whiffed LRR would play this way with AA. AK about never I think.

Top Pair mid/low kicker - 0
- or some v small %. This seems highly unlikely. His line was either trapping on the flop, or was weak on the flop and improved on the turn. I don't see him playing weak on the flop and very strong on the turn with this sort of hand.

Other / Air - 5
Can't rule it out but I think he'd either reraise big on the flop or c/c flop and c/r turn if he was going to make a move.

[snakekilla88]

Could be a lot of things but in order...

Straight: j10 here would be my first guess.
Trips: Yeah since he is tight, but wierd flop line meaning hes a donk
Two pair: Kind of a wierd line but I dont know..yes if he is a donk.
AA: how he played the hand he is most likely a donk
TP: very wierd but possible
air: probally not messing around here but depends on opponent

Basically the more of a donkey he is opens up more things for the bottom of my list. More tight/solid he is then its most likely straight-two-pair-set (why a solid player min bets this flop i have no idea?)