K9o Blind steal situation, turn?

[nomadtla]

SB just sat down so no reads whatsoever except folded BB to steal (not from me). BB is pretty tight and doesn't fight blind steals without a legit raising hand.

Crypto
10 players $1/$2

Preflop:
Hero has K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] On the Button
Folds to Hero, <font color="red"> Hero Raises </font>, SB calls, BB folds.

pretty average blind steal hand vs. one unknown and one who doesn't defend enough

Flop: (5 SB) T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets,</font> SB calls

standard continuation bet

Turn: (3.5 BB) J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
SB checks, hero ????

I have the OESD, should I take the free card, or semi-bluff

[Dr. Matt]

You should read MrWookie's 10billionth hand post. He advocates betting the turn HU in these situations, which I agree with.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
You should read MrWookie's 10billionth hand post. He advocates betting the turn HU in these situations, which I agree with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I agree that his post applies to this situation.

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You should read MrWookie's 10billionth hand post. He advocates betting the turn HU in these situations, which I agree with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I agree that his post applies to this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

But what do you think of this situation?

[Dr. Matt]

"So you raise preflop on the button after it’s been folded to you with one of your typical stealing hands. You get called only by the big blind, and you autobet a flop that doesn’t pair you up. Unsurprisingly, the big blind calls, and then checks to you on a turn card that again fails to pair with you. What factors, now, determine whether you bet again, or take a free card?" ~MrWookie (1st paragraph, 10k post)

That's what his post is about... which is exactly what this hand is...

oh ok, it's the SB, but who cares? It's still the same situation.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
"So you raise preflop on the button after it’s been folded to you with one of your typical stealing hands. You get called only by the big blind, and you autobet a flop that doesn’t pair you up. Unsurprisingly, the big blind calls, and then checks to you on a turn card that again fails to pair with you. What factors, now, determine whether you bet again, or take a free card?" ~MrWookie (1st paragraph, 10k post)

That's what his post is about... which is exactly what this hand is...

oh ok, it's the SB, but who cares? It's still the same situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

The answer to his question is not "Bet the turn."

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You should read MrWookie's 10billionth hand post. He advocates betting the turn HU in these situations, which I agree with.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think I agree that his post applies to this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

But what do you think of this situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd check behind and fold UI on the river (calling with a pair and raising a straight).

1) I don't think hero has the best hand often enough to squeeze a value bet. Villain might be on a flush/straight draw, and K-high may actually be best. But given a generic range for villain, I don't think enough of the range lands in the pure drawing range (notice that A-high flush draws are ahead of hero).
2) I don't think villain folds a better hand often enough. Sometimes villain takes a loose peel with ace-high and will fold to a turn bet, but that's a small hand range.

Therefore, a free card is better for hero than betting the turn (folding to a check-raise or checking behind).

I'd fold the river UI because of reason #1 above. Three mid-range cards does not look good for picking off a bluff with K-high.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
1) I don't think hero has the best hand often enough to squeeze a value bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

not neccessarily a value bet, but pure semibluff that you are going to have to fire again on the river to hope he folds A high.

anyways though sometimes i bet this turn i check it a good amount on this turn too.

[fabadam]

At this point, I think SB is drawing to overcards too.

I'm betting here for three reasons:
(1) I may have the best hand
(2) I have a monster draw
(3) I'm setting up for a river bluff.

Note that you'll have to re-evaluate on any action by villain. I'm guessing a call on that.

[CrMenace]

*grunch*

I think you fire another bullet. You have fold equity, plus if called you have many outs to draw out.