simple hand

Jason Strasser (strassa2) · #1 08-12-2006, 10:19 PM

was bored, stuck in the cash games, decided to play the saturday party tourney.

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t20/t40
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2 folds, MP1 calls t40 (pot was t60), 2 folds, Hero raises to t200, 3 folds, MP1 calls t160 (pot was t300).

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t460, 2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets t255, MP1 calls t255 (pot was t715).

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t970, 2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets t588, MP1 calls t588 (pot was t1558).

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t2146, 2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets t1444, MP1 calls t1444 (pot was t3590).

Results:
Final pot: t5034

adanthar · #2 08-12-2006, 10:21 PM

that river's a whole lot less of a value bet than at 10/20

Jason Strasser (strassa2) · #3 08-12-2006, 10:22 PM

so you dont like it?

adanthar · #4 08-12-2006, 10:25 PM

he probably isn't calling down with exactly QT/JJ, and he probably isn't folding KQ, so I have no idea if you're accomplishing anything positive here/no

...of course this is Party and he might find a call with 98o

JSchnett · #5 08-12-2006, 10:38 PM

I dont think you get paid from JJ/TT enough to make the river bet worth it.

edit: The more I think about it the more I like it. People call raises and call down with AQ/AK here a lot though.

Jason Strasser (strassa2) · #6 08-12-2006, 10:51 PM

do people actually limp call JJ here regularly?

anyway, I figured the way the hand played it was very likely i wasnt behind, so i went ahead and made a value bet that most of these guys will assume is either a huge hand or a bluff, because most mtters can not make a nice sized value bet with medium hands.

i guess ill get called by worse queens, an 8, low pair like 22, ace hi, i dunno. and ill basically never get bluff checkraised here. so why not bet? I guess once in a while he has KQ AQ but whatever... i still think my bet has plenty of value.

THEOSU · #7 08-12-2006, 10:54 PM

jason,

your error here is assuming your opponent will worry about what YOU might have.

adanthar · #8 08-13-2006, 12:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]

i guess ill get called by worse queens, an 8, low pair like 22, ace hi, i dunno.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just realized you're probably playing like 35/25 to this point so I like it a lot more than I did an hour ago, but this'd never work for most people reading this post.

rebuyboy · #9 08-13-2006, 04:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
most of these guys will assume is either a huge hand or a bluff

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
he probably isn't calling down with exactly QT/JJ, and he probably isn't folding KQ

[/ QUOTE ]

If most of these guys assume its a huge hand or a bluff, why would they fold QT but call with KQ?

DonT77 · #10 08-14-2006, 10:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i guess ill get called by worse queens, an 8, low pair like 22, ace hi, i dunno. and ill basically never get bluff checkraised here. so why not bet? I guess once in a while he has KQ AQ but whatever... i still think my bet has plenty of value.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd like the river bet a lot more if you had KQ or AQ because I think those two hands make up a large part of his range that would call a river bet. "Worse Queens" are QT and lower - which are probably unlikely given the PF action. For every time he's calling you down with TT/JJ or worse he's got KQ/AQ+ IMO. I think the river bet is close to 0EV, and the decision to value bet or not probably depends on your read of him and your read of how he perceives you.