400NL: KK, reraised pot, ugly flop

[SamG]

Villain is a solid regular. What is my plan?

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $377.20
CO: $248.50
Hero: $435.85
SB: $505.80
BB: $526.80

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, CO calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $20</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $60</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($128, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $60</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ???</font>

[FeNeF]

You're not even going to give us stats? Geez.

[SamG]

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You're not even going to give us stats? Geez.

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I don't have my PT DB. But villain does not reraise lightly. I have a feeling this is a suck bet. Not sure VPIP etc matters really in this hand.

Edit: I think people rely on stats way too much, and I don't think they are relevant in this hand. OK, off my soapbox now...

[jskinn04]

Here is Hero's chance vs. villain's likely range.

Board: Qc 5c 8c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 42.3737 % 39.91% 02.46% { KdKs }
Hand 2: 57.6263 % 55.16% 02.46% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

If Hero calls the flop then he's committed to protecting his hand on a non-club turn. Hero also faces the problem that villain may c/f many of the hands KK beats but villain might also push some of those worse hands like J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J. However, villain's pushing range will include AA and QQ frequently enough that calling a push on a non-club turn getting worse than 2:1 is probably not right.

I think the choice is between pushing and folding. Pushing is good because AA without the ace of clubs sometimes folds. Pushing is also good to protect against J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J and A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K or AK[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

I still don't like pushing, though because much villain's range is calling and Hero is either 50/50 or WWWWWWB.

Of the all the options folding is the best way to avoid the game theoretic Pandora's box. Thus, I'd muck this one to the flop bet.

[Big_Jim]

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{ JJ+, AKs, AKo }

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WTF is this range?

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If Hero calls the flop then he's committed to protecting his hand on a non-club turn.

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Not necessarily.

[grac]

We really do need stats/reads here.(vilian does not rr lightly)

I fold this hand. Does anyone try to minraise here and try to get aces/aq no club to fold?

edit

[SamG]

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We really do need stats/reads here.

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My read is that villain does not reraise lightly. I don't have a read on his postflop play. I don't know his stats, but he is a TAG.

[grac]

I think I do minraise here trying to get him off aces. His bet does seem sucky and I don't think he is betting the flopped flush, aces with the club, or set of queens like this. The 2 hands I put him on is a(c)kx (or other way around probably more likely) or red aces despite his weak flop bet. This would be interesting if you have more streets here. My line is minraise, and slightly less than 3/4 pot non club turn.

edit Spelling

[jlocdog]

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I fold this hand. Does anyone try to minraise here and try to get aces/aq no club to fold?

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With these stacks and playing at this level, there is npo way you get AA to fold. Especially AA with the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Not a chance.

As for your play, I call here. If hie reraising standards are fairly tight then the only flush hand he could have would be A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. If he has QQ then he probably bets more because that means his set just turned very vulnerable and he probably wouldn't mind ending the hand right there. Also note that raising into his set will get you nowhere fast. No way he folds his set with 2 cards to come. So the only other hand you are really worried about is AA. Again though if he has AA you're not pushing him off it (especially with the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in his hand). He very well could have TT,JJ,AQ, or even AK with one being a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Take a card off cheaply and see what develops on the turn. You do have position so calling here might cvery well slow him up. I don't think you can fold this that easily.

[punter11235]

I cant give solid advice here because I have no idea what to do. I only know that I usually call here (because you have 20secs on Party and you gotta do something).