At what odds would you bet Alan Cunningham to win WSOP ME FT?

[HavanaBanana]

Mathematical odds is 5.17
Odds at Betfair is currently 3.5 (5:2)

ToT

Edited to clearify odds of 3.00 is the same as 2:1

[almostbusto]

i always get the decimal odds mixed up... 5.0 is "4 to 1" or "+400" or is it 5 to 1?


pinny has him at +205 FWIW and its moved around a fair amount since the line has been put up so there are a fair amount of people who think thats a good price

[durron597]

ZOMG take 3.5:1 as quickly as you can

[BadgerPro]

I would expect with Cunningham's experience he's chances of winning have to be close to twice as good as expected. So with a mathmatical odds at about 5:1, I would think 2.5:1 would be about right. So to take the bet I would want 3:1, I would think that 3.5:1 is actually pretty good.

I could be wrong on my analysis there, just my opinion (and I don't playing on making any bets so take it as you like).

[ligastar]

[ QUOTE ]
I would expect with Cunningham's experience he's chances of winning have to be close to twice as good as expected. So with a mathmatical odds at about 5:1, I would think 2.5:1 would be about right. So to take the bet I would want 3:1, I would think that 3.5:1 is actually pretty good.

I could be wrong on my analysis there, just my opinion (and I don't playing on making any bets so take it as you like).

[/ QUOTE ]

I could be wrong, but I just checked betfair's website and I believe 3.5 is equal to 2.5-to-1 or, put another way, 2.5:1.


Edit to say AC is now at 3.4.

[almostbusto]

[ QUOTE ]
I would expect with Cunningham's experience he's chances of winning have to be close to twice as good as expected. So with a mathmatical odds at about 5:1, I would think 2.5:1 would be about right. So to take the bet I would want 3:1, I would think that 3.5:1 is actually pretty good.

I could be wrong on my analysis there, just my opinion (and I don't playing on making any bets so take it as you like).

[/ QUOTE ] i think twice as good as the chip stacks would normally dictate is way too much. that is probably true when allen has 2-5% of the chips in play, but as the % of chips you have in play increases, your "skill level multplier" must go down. to prove my point, imagine allen has 50% of the chips in play, he certainly won't be winning 100% of the time. however, when the tournament started allen had a much much better than 8700 to 1 shot at winning, perhaps by a whole order of magnitude.

[Jurollo]

WSEX has live betting for this.... these are the numbers (works exactly like american idol live betting)

JAMIE GOLD 29 33 +203
ALLEN CUNNINGHAM 28 32 +212
ERICK FRIBERG 10 13 +669
PAUL WASICKA 8 11 +809
RICHARD LEE 8 11 +809
DOUG KIM 6 8 +1150
RHETT BUTLER 3 5 +1900
MICHAEL BINGER 2 4 +2400
DAN NASSIF 2 4 +2400

[pete fabrizio]

[ QUOTE ]
WSEX has live betting for this.... these are the numbers (works exactly like american idol live betting)

JAMIE GOLD 29 33 +203
ALLEN CUNNINGHAM 28 32 +212
ERICK FRIBERG 10 13 +669
PAUL WASICKA 8 11 +809
RICHARD LEE 8 11 +809
DOUG KIM 6 8 +1150
RHETT BUTLER 3 5 +1900
MICHAEL BINGER 2 4 +2400
DAN NASSIF 2 4 +2400

[/ QUOTE ]

I put money on Gold v. Cunningham to win (anyone else no bet) with a friend, and he called me crazy. But WSEX seems to agree.

[SEABEAST]

I dunno dude, betting on a dude who has publicly stated he doesn't want to win, who apparently has blatant tells, and probably little experience at headsup doesn't seem wise.

[calling all cars]

I can get Friberg at approx 9-1 at tradesports--any thoughts?

I think Gold and Cunningham at less than 3-1 is bit thin for my taste.