Prior performance no guarantee of future results

mrbaseball · #1 08-05-2006, 10:30 AM

Mark Prior. The Golden Boy. The can't miss, sure thing. The perfect fluid mechanics that will never break down. Meet Dusty Baker [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Prior is favored today. He shouldn't be. He is a shell of his former self. I'm not sure if he's broken for good but he's certainly broken right now and likely has no business pitching in the major leagues until he gets right again.

The Cubs are 0-7 in Prior's starts this season. He has been awful. His best start consisted of 5 and 2/3s innings of NO-HIT baseball. He did however walk 5 while striking out 3. His K's are down. In past seasons he was a 10K per 9 guy. This year it's down to 8.23K per 9. Still well above average there but definitely not himself. It's everything else that is waaaaaay off. In only 35 innings he has managed to walk 21 (5.4 per 9) and give up a remarkable 8 bombs in only 35 innings, a clip just slightly above 2 per 9. Lots of walks and lots of dingers is a lethally bad combination. Especially for a guy who is favored.

His counterpart Duke is not having a great year either. After a good debut he is mired in a sophmore slump. But other than K per 9 he eclipses Prior in just about every worthwhile catagory. Slightly better whip and era, and he walks 2 less per 9 than Prior and has only give 4 more home runs (12) but has pitched 102 more innings. Duke is also a lefty and as bad as the Cubs are they are worse versus lefties (14-22). Duke in particular. In Dukes 2 starts this year versus Cubs he is 2-0 and gave up only 1 earned run in 16 innings pitched. Pitt is much better versus righties as well being only 4 games under .500 against righthanders.

Offensively these are about the 2 weakest teams in baseball but even so Pittsburgh scores more runs and has a slight edge in team OPS and EqA.

I like Pitt at +117. They win this matchup probably more than 50% of the time making them heavy value today. Based on Priors performance this year I say Pitt should be favored in the -125/-135 range. I really like value created today by Priors past history which ignores the fact he is performing in the bottom 10% of all major league starters right now.

dixie_flyer · #2 08-05-2006, 10:51 AM

do you go solely by season-to-date stats in handicapping? In looking only at season to date stats, I would have the Bucs at -127, which is about the same as you ...but I generally assign a fairly hefty weighting to preseason expected stats for pitchers -- in that case the Cubs would be -110...but you make a good case that Priors expected stats should perhaps be ignored

It is true that the Cubs have a lousy record against lefties, but they do score slightly more runs against lefties(4.23) than righties(4.15)

mrbaseball · #3 08-05-2006, 11:23 AM

I go mostly with in season stats. This Prior isn't the same as Prior from years past. I weight "current form" heavily. But this game is simple. Prior blows, Duke has dominated the Cubs, Pitt is basically .500 versus righties, Cubs are dismal versus lefties, and Pitt scores more often. Pitt should be favored!

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they do score slightly more runs against lefties(4.23) than righties(4.15)

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Cubs OPS vs. righties .754 vs. lefties .691 (last in NL)

dixie_flyer · #4 08-05-2006, 12:47 PM

where do you get team OPS stats, broken down by L/R of the opposing starter?

I generally give some weight to expected pitcher stats, with the idea being regression to the mean if a pitcher's YRD performance has diverged from what he "should" do..but in the case of Prior I can see the logic of ignoring "prior" years if he's not the same pitcher now as he has been

what do you think of SD and LAD today? ...they were the only 2 that I was looking at

mrbaseball · #5 08-05-2006, 12:56 PM

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where do you get team OPS stats, broken down by L/R of the opposing starter?

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ESPN. Go to stats (team batting) and sort for vs left and vs right.

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what do you think of SD and LAD today?

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I like Washington over SD. I have that game as a virtual coin toss. I got Wash at +136 but looking now the line has already moved in to +124. I have no play on LAD/Fla. If I had to bet it I'd go Fla. My model has them as a -140 favorite and current line is -129. I need a little more seperation between my line and the actual to pull the trigger though and especially on a favorite.

Good luck!

dixie_flyer · #6 08-05-2006, 02:47 PM

thanks for the info...I'll take a look at the effect of modifying my model to base the lefty/righty differential on OPS instead of runs scored

BOL to you too!

Punker · #7 08-05-2006, 04:43 PM

Maybe we should have looked at the Pittsburgh pitcher too [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

mrbaseball · #8 08-05-2006, 05:10 PM

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Maybe we should have looked at the Pittsburgh pitcher too

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We did. 1 earned run in 16 innings against the Cubs this year coming in. Lotsa innings left. But having edge doesn't mean they come in. It's called variance. Win, lose or draw I make this bet on this kind of matchup every time because it's a long term winner.

Punker · #9 08-05-2006, 05:55 PM

I agree...I bet the game same as you...we're making a comeback now... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

jmillerdls · #10 08-06-2006, 03:14 AM

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Maybe we should have looked at the Pittsburgh pitcher too

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We did. 1 earned run in 16 innings against the Cubs this year coming in. Lotsa innings left. But having edge doesn't mean they come in. It's called variance. Win, lose or draw I make this bet on this kind of matchup every time because it's a long term winner.

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Heh, I bet the Cubs. I felt Prior's stats are misleading this year. Yay for money.