$100 NL Jacks Under Fire on Monotone Board

[King_S]

No reads on player, as GT+ wasn't loaded.

Effective stacks: $100

Dealt to Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Pre-Flop:

UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, Button(Villain) raises $3.50, SB(Hero) raises $12, BB folds, Villain calls.

Analysis: Villain only calls the raise, so I can rule out AA, KK and QQ, as they warrant re-raises.

Flop: (~$25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Hero bets $20, Villain bets $88 all-in, Hero ...

Analysis: Villain most likely does not hold AA, KK, or QQ, given the pre-Flop action. Perhaps Villain has a naked A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] X non-heart.

Advise me.

[gimmetheloot]

AK/AQhh or AhK AhQ or something. You are probably flipping or crushed. Then again I made a tilt call with this EXACT situation earlier and villain flipped up KQ no suit, so...

I think you are flipping way more than not and you need to call given what is already in the pot.

[Claunchy]

I don't necessarily think you can rule out QQ+. If he reraises your reraise, he might as well turn his cards over. I will often just call preflop here with these hands.

Basically, you advertised a big pair, and he pushed anyway. That screams a lot of strength. I probably fold here.

[holograham]

you called and got beat by a flush/over pair...tough [censored]. Get your fishy game out of the gutter and then play me one on one amateur.

I wouldve smelled I was beat preflop after the 3.50 raise and laid it down like the shark I am. Live it learn it fish.

[carnivalhobo]

uh, your thoughts on preflop are wrong.

most people 4bet nothing preflop, his call means not that much, though likely a PP or decent A.

i call this all day.

[CaptainNurple]

In the absence of a read, I think you have to assume that villain is a "reasonable" player.

I agree with Claunchy that you can't rule out QQ. AA or KK are probably pushing against your re-raise pf, but QQ are smooth-calling a lot of the time.

Any PP much lower than TT is folding pf to your raise; even AQ is folding to your re-raise some of the time. So his likely hands are somewhere in the neighborhood of QQ, or AK/AQ with at least one heart, and a remote chance of something like TT or the other two Jacks.

Thus, chances are pretty good villain's got as many as 14 outs to beat you (the 8 remaining hearts, 3 aces, and 3 kings), not to mention the 2 remaining queens if he's got QQ. 14 outs for villain makes you a 44% dog.

I think best case you're flippin, and you're worse than a flip if he's got AK/AQ with a heart. Pot is just shy of laying you 2:1 (you're calling $68 to win $133), so I think you probably fold.

I think my numbers are right... somebody correct me if they're not.

Just my two cents.

[rebuyboy]

Lol people don't normally 4-bet QQ preflop or fold pocket pairs preflop either. Give him a range and see if pot odds dictate a call. He could have Ah Ks, As Kh, Ah Qs, As Qh, Ah Ad, As Ad, Kh Kd, Ks Kd, Th Ts etc. i am getting bored but throw in a few lower sets or PPs with flush draw.

[ThePortuguee]

[ QUOTE ]
you called and got beat by a flush/over pair...tough [censored]. Get your fishy game out of the gutter and then play me one on one amateur.

I wouldve smelled I was beat preflop after the 3.50 raise and laid it down like the shark I am. Live it learn it fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

Err... ok? The weird thign about this is that i'm not really convinced it's a joke.

Anyway, my thoughts:

PF: What is everyone talking about? We cannot necessarily rule out QQ-AA, particularly not becuase OP thinks it "warrants" a reraise. that's a meaningless statement. I agree that they are not so likely, but absolutely not to be ruled out.

Also, SSNL Party Poker players are not "usually" goign to fold middle pocketpairs.

Flop: Yeah. Tough spot. I think this is very close, but a call given the pot odds. We're getting around 2:1 and I think that's about how often we win this pot. Villain can do this with just a big heart, usually the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], but can also have pairs, can also be bluffing, and will sometimes have sets and OPs as well.

However the J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] may provide outs against some of villain's holdings that are beating us. I also think villain is fairly weak a surprisingly large % of the time.

Villain is usually not going to be way behind in this spot, IMO, but I think we absolutely have 33% equity vs. his range.

High variance, but I think it's a call.

[c_strong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you called and got beat by a flush/over pair...tough [censored]. Get your fishy game out of the gutter and then play me one on one amateur.

I wouldve smelled I was beat preflop after the 3.50 raise and laid it down like the shark I am. Live it learn it fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

Err... ok? The weird thign about this is that i'm not really convinced it's a joke.

Anyway, my thoughts:

PF: What is everyone talking about? We cannot necessarily rule out QQ-AA, particularly not becuase OP thinks it "warrants" a reraise. that's a meaningless statement. I agree that they are not so likely, but absolutely not to be ruled out.

Also, SSNL Party Poker players are not "usually" goign to fold middle pocketpairs.

Flop: Yeah. Tough spot. I think this is very close, but a call given the pot odds. We're getting around 2:1 and I think that's about how often we win this pot. Villain can do this with just a big heart, usually the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], but can also have pairs, can also be bluffing, and will sometimes have sets and OPs as well.

However the J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] may provide outs against some of villain's holdings that are beating us. I also think villain is fairly weak a surprisingly large % of the time.

Villain is usually not going to be way behind in this spot, IMO, but I think we absolutely have 33% equity vs. his range.

High variance, but I think it's a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is all spot on, IMO.

[holograham]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you called and got beat by a flush/over pair...tough [censored]. Get your fishy game out of the gutter and then play me one on one amateur.

I wouldve smelled I was beat preflop after the 3.50 raise and laid it down like the shark I am. Live it learn it fish.

[/ QUOTE ]

Err... ok? The weird thign about this is that i'm not really convinced it's a joke.


[/ QUOTE ]

To respond...yes this was a joke. I am friends with King_S and play with him live often.