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#1
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AQs I am not sure about
Good 5/10 6-max game. No one in this hand seems to be anything special. Just kind of loose and maybe a little passive. UTG and MP limp and I raise A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the button. BB and limpers call.
Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Checked to me and I bet(?), BB and UTG call, MP raises. We all call. Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] checked to MP who bets, I raise(??), BB and UTG fold, MP 3-bets, I fold(???) ? ?? ??? tpir |
#2
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Re: AQs I am not sure about
Because the pot is so bloated, I don't think calling down is that bad. However, with a passive player, the flop check-raise often means a hand stronger than top pair. This could include 34, 33, 44, TT. Because he didn't raise preflop, you can unweight pocket tens a little bit. You can probably unweight 34 too because he would probably only play the suited starters. I think the old maxim can hold true here - don't raise in position if you can't fold to a check-raise. You are drawing dead against probably three quarters of his holdings and to eight outs against the one quarter. So you are on an effective two-outer. I don't think you have the right price to call two bets to get to showdown to hit your two outer.
FWIW, I don't think you can not raise the turn card here. While he will have AT beat a lot with the c/r, he will also have every split pair of tens in the deck some percentage of the time too. And I think the flop bet is standard with only one card in the playing zone and the baby connecting cards. I really like how you played it. nh. Combo numbers: 33 = 4 (dead) 44 = 4 (dead) TT = 4 (probably 2 unweighted) (dead) 34s = 4 (you are drawing to eight outs) QT = 6 (you are drawing to three outs) T4s, T3s are pretty tough to imagine... |
#3
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Re: AQs I am not sure about
I'm calling down without a good read. I can see him playing Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] like this. There's a slim chance he's pushing a monster draw like K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], we don't have much of a read. I think you have somewhere around 2 effective outs when behind and in this huge pot they're worth somewhere around 2/3 of a big bet. When you think of it like that your effective odds to calldown are looking pretty good.
I dig the rest. |
#4
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Re: AQs I am not sure about
He's getting like 7-1 on a calldown across both streets. I don't think he's right to play a two-outer like this. We both sort of suggested he's way behind and still calling down isn't atrocious because the pot is so big. But I think that folding in this spot should be the read-free default. Datamine the game for a half hour (50 hands) before you sit down and you can call the two bets because you'll have the best of it enough of the time against this player (maybe).
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#5
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Re: AQs I am not sure about
It always seems like you're boned (which you are), but I call the turn to improve and then call the river because he's unknown and I have a good hand.
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#6
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Re: AQs I am not sure about
I would fold the flop. Yes thats right, I said it. Getting 13-1, I would fold the flop.
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#7
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Re: AQs I am not sure about
I assume this is only because you aren't closing the action? You are getting 15.5-1 or something if they all make the call. You are getting around 25-1 implied. That's enough solely for the BDFD and BDSD, plus our overs have to be good at least sometime.
Or are you suggesting he will c/r here with one pair extremely infrequently, meaning we are always drawing to runner-runner. I think he'll also c/r here with 56, A2, diamond draws, etc., justifying the call. |
#8
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Re: AQs I am not sure about
[ QUOTE ]
I assume this is only because you aren't closing the action? You are getting 15.5-1 or something if they all make the call. You are getting around 25-1 implied. That's enough solely for the BDFD and BDSD, plus our overs have to be good at least sometime. Or are you suggesting he will c/r here with one pair extremely infrequently, meaning we are always drawing to runner-runner. I think he'll also c/r here with 56, A2, diamond draws, etc., justifying the call. [/ QUOTE ] I think most of the time when someone checkraises here, they will have a monster, meaning we are drawing dead, and other times they will have a FD which means were drawing to a 4 outer that may not be the best hand when we hit, and we'll get rivered alot when we do hit. Thats why I would fold here with no reads even given these nice pot odds. |
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