Collectible card industry

[NNH]

I have had an idea for a while now about a business in the collectible card industry, mainly focusing on sports trading cards.

Before I even go any further with it, does anybody know much about the industry. I have heard that it has been declining steadily for a while now.

Any thoughts?

[snowbank]

[ QUOTE ]
I have had an idea for a while now about a business in the collectible card industry, mainly focusing on sports trading cards.

Before I even go any further with it, does anybody know much about the industry. I have heard that it has been declining steadily for a while now.

Any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

I know a lot about it. What would you like to know?

[Elaboration]

[ QUOTE ]
I have heard that it has been declining steadily for a while now.



[/ QUOTE ]

Its below sea level.

http://www.slate.com/id/2146218

[hawk59]

NNH,

There has been some small hedge fund trying to force Topps to sell itself, and as a result a bunch of articles about the baseball card industry have been popping up. You should read through a bunch of them. If I have my facts straight something like 90% of all card shops went out of business following the peak of the industry which took place in the early 90's.

[NNH]

All these replies are in line with what I have heard. That article really hit home with what I remember as a child collecting cards.

I haven't bought a pack in over a decade. It's sad to see where the industry is now.

I did hear that MLB has not renewed alot the card manufacturer's licenses, so maybe that will help cut out the clutter.

So what do you guys think is causing this. What are kids doing instead of card collecting (other than poker). Is it Magic and those type of card games?

[SLP]

This is wholly anecdotal evidence, but it seems to me that many shops that used to sell sports cards now focus more on Magic, Pokemon, etc.

Also anecdotal, but it seems like sports memorabilia (at least at the high end) is doing just fine. Steriods has diminished some of the interest in baseball memorabilia insofar as people should be going crazy about Bonds' HR chase, but they aren't because he's Bonds. However, there are tons of lock HoF'ers currently playing right now, and someone (Andruw Jones?) will eventually challenge the HR record again.

[RUFFNECK]

A bunch of things have happened in the sportscard industry to sort of sour the market.

The excessive increase in price point of the product. Packs of cards even the highest end brands were max $2 at the peak of the boom in the late 80s early 90s. Now packs retail for 2+ with the decent “hobby” exclusive packs going for $5++ per pack. $100 per pack cards do exist in this market today as new release, I am not talking about vintage or rare unopened material.

The complete overabundance of sets and the mass production of marquee features. Explanation there are too many sets being produced, on top of that one of the many things that pulled people in, memorabilia cards, numbered rookies, refractors, cert. autos….etc. etc. are now too common. The mystique has been erased, because it is simply too easy to pull a “rare” card now.

Professional grading: Just like in coins and comics, the professional grading market has decreased the value of the market. Loose cards no longer command anything close to book, graded cards only at the highest grade command any real premium in current day cards. Cards graded that receive normal grades like 8s or 9s, are often selling at a deep discount even below the already standard book for a loose un-graded card. On top of that there is a bias in grading based on submission numbers, I have witnessed it first hand a number of times and it is widely known through the dealers who do bulk submissions to graders. The more you submit to them to grade at their outrageous fees, the better your grades are going to be. I have seen numerous times a individual submit a single card get a 8/9 grade, a bulk submitting dealer crack the case resubmit and get a higher grade.

Lastly the biggest depressor in the market is the internet, but more specifically eBay. Back when the market was booming there was usually 2-3 shops in a decent size town, and between those 2-3 shops you might be able to find a small number of examples of a really hot card, beyond that you were out of luck. This forced you to basically stick to book or near book prices to buy cards from dealers; they simply had a stranglehold on supply. Even if shops had multiple examples, they would only display and sell one or two at a time to temper the market. Enter the internet/eBay, now everyone can put out their ware for sale, from the biggest dealer to the smallest collector who buys a pack every once in awhile. The market that was largely insulated has now become very open, sending the prices to an all time low.

In my opinion, the market is now completely speculative and high risk, with very thin spots of great return, the days of making money at it hand over fist with little work, information or study are long gone.

The last technique I really made great money at was bulk ripping of new releases hoping to hit a high ender or two per case and turning those over to make the profit. In the end this honestly wasn’t even that profitable. I am sure there is still some arbitrage type buying that could be done if you really are on top of all the eBay listing and able to hook into a storefront network to push cards off to, but it was too much work for too little money in my opinion.

If you still really want to get into it I think the only way to go is focus on vintage material (pre-80s) and only deal in the very best of grades and star cards.

[ckboddic]

Been declining since 1998/1999.

[snowbank]

I have had an idea for a while now about a business in the collectible card industry, mainly focusing on sports trading cards.

whats your idea?

[burkoboy]

I know alot about it, I do alot with it. You need to go in depth farther with what exactly you want to do with it.