Pair+OESD vs. flop overbet. PP100 6max

[Keyser.]

Villain is 31/11 over a small sample size, no read other than that. Still push here considering my FE is probably low?

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $100
CO: $204.85
Hero: $103.65
SB: $159.31
BB: $392.70

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $6.5</font>, BB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($14, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $22.96</font>, Hero wants to go arrrr in

[CallMePls]

Hmm this smells like an overpair...minimum re-raise + opponent overbetting flop...looks like he's got a big overpair like QQ-AA and is scared of that board, especially since he's OOP.

Assuming villian has an overpair, you are 48.6% to win here. The question is... To gambool, or not to gambool?

[antidan444]

I'd fold and wait for a better spot. I don't think your FE is good enough and while your draw is good, it isn't great.

[younghov17]

14 outs, need 38% chances of hitting to break even on a flop call, more to profit.

33 to 14 = 29%

if u push ur 47% to win, so ur risking 97 to win 111, so youd neet to win little under 47%, so a push is minorly +ev with no fold equity, the more often he folds the higher ev it is

[1C5]

Thanks for the math.

A bit +EV but playing like that will have variance through the roof!

I don't see many people folding to a push here.

[antidan444]

Let me also add I tend to be a low-variance player. That doesn't mean I won't push good draws on the flop if a good spot arises, but I probably do it far less than a lot of 2+2ers. Comes down to personal preference, really. So these spots with a draw where I think the EV is close, I usually err on the side of caution and fold.

[AZplaya]

I like a push. You need very little FE to make a shove profitable, and even if you think it is minimal, I would think you have some. It's pretty close, and others may disagree with this logic, but in spots like this I decide based on how I've been running. If I've been running hot I usually shove here, if I've been running like [censored], I will often fold.

[younghov17]

[ QUOTE ]
I like a push. You need very little FE to make a shove profitable, and even if you think it is minimal, I would think you have some. It's pretty close, and others may disagree with this logic, but in spots like this I decide based on how I've been running. If I've been running hot I usually shove here, if I've been running like [censored], I will often fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

this reasoning doesnt make any sense, no offense

[younghov17]

14 outs twice, when he almost certainly has at best a high pair it should only take 10 seconds to figure out that its +ev to push

[CaptainNurple]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I like a push. You need very little FE to make a shove profitable, and even if you think it is minimal, I would think you have some. It's pretty close, and others may disagree with this logic, but in spots like this I decide based on how I've been running. If I've been running hot I usually shove here, if I've been running like [censored], I will often fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

this reasoning doesnt make any sense, no offense

[/ QUOTE ]

It actually makes perfect sense. It's psychological, not mathematical. Obviously "running hot" has no effect on what cards are going to come, but opponents are almost always more inclined to fold to your bet when you've been winning a lot of pots.

Thus, "running hot" = greater FE

Brunson talks about this a lot, the fact that you have to be winning hands in order to push people around most effectively.

Simply put, if you're winning lots of pots people are more scared of you. It may not be rational, but the emotional doubt is still there.