I can't put him on quads, can I? Deep in 11r

DDBeast · #1 07-23-2006, 12:55 PM

PS 11r, on the FT bubble. I have a monster stack and have been incessantly beating on the table. I make this loose call pf with the intention of stealing later.
Reads: Haven't played a lot of hands with him, but he seems to be solid, hasn't done anything crazy. I have been beating on him a lot since he is 2nd biggest stack at the table.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t40000 (5 handed) internettexasholdem.com

BB (t114826)
UTG (t1294064)
MP (t410331)
Hero (t2875454)
SB (t309726)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises to t120000, 1 fold, Hero calls t120000, 2 folds.

Flop: (t248000) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets t160000, Hero calls t160000.

Turn: (t568000) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (t568000) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets t1012064 (All-In), Hero ....

Final Pot: t2592128

footnbaseball · #2 07-23-2006, 01:21 PM

I call. If you had quads, would you push the river for 2x the pot? I'm pretty sure he'd make a value bet. I think you're chopping here, and you may even be ahead.

ViciousGame · #3 07-23-2006, 01:41 PM

My feeling is that he has an Ace only. However, moving in with with the case King would be the most equitable play on his part, but most players would prefer to value bet it instead.

yabastid · #4 07-23-2006, 01:43 PM

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I call. If you had quads, would you push the river for 2x the pot? I'm pretty sure he'd make a value bet. I think you're chopping here, and you may even be ahead.

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This kind of thinking is why pushing quads here is +EV.

Fold.

Edited to say: Given the way the hand played out, with the A on the flop- I push quads here on river every time.

footnbaseball · #5 07-23-2006, 01:49 PM

I'm not saying pushing quads here is a bad play, I'm saying I think it's safe to say the average online player would not push quads here.

Foucault · #6 07-23-2006, 02:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I call. If you had quads, would you push the river for 2x the pot? I'm pretty sure he'd make a value bet. I think you're chopping here, and you may even be ahead.

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This kind of thinking is why pushing quads here is +EV.

Fold.

Edited to say: Given the way the hand played out, with the A on the flop- I push quads here on river every time.

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Really? Hero is calling 102K to win 28K, so Villain has to have quads more than 1 time in 4 (allowing for the fact that losing a big stack on the bubble is more bad than chopping this pot is good). Don't you think he plays an A the same way? I'm not saying he should, but I think most would. I also think a lot of even pretty bad players will shove quads here, it doesn't take a genious to realize Hero has an A. Still, even if he played all his Ax and Kx hands under the gun, he'd have A twice as often, and if we assume he plays more Ax than Kx hands, I think we see A three times as often as K, which means this is a call.

JCool · #7 07-23-2006, 02:54 PM

1) I see nothing wrong with calling PF in position. Five handed UTG raises are meaningless.

2) If villian had quads and really thought you had a boat, why on earth would he not value bet the turn and better price you in on the river?

3) The 55k is donktastic

4) I'd call.

skier_5 · #8 07-23-2006, 03:12 PM

since you are asking. Since the pot size shows you called. Ima put him on quads and fold [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

I probably fold this. Yes, sometimes you lose by not making the split, sometimes you fold the best hand, but you have so many chips I think losing that 1 mill in chips is such a huge deal that you need to fold here.

I have trouble folding this, but I think it may be correct, but im not sure.

Foucault · #9 07-23-2006, 03:16 PM

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1) I see nothing wrong with calling PF in position. Five handed UTG raises are meaningless.

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Yeah I didn't notice it was 5-handed. I'm still not a big fan of the call, but it's mostly a question of style. Complaint withdrawn.

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2) If villian had quads and really thought you had a boat, why on earth would he not value bet the turn and better price you in on the river?

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Good point, but there are a lot of players who think they have to slowplay quads. But, most of them don't lead out trips on the flop, either. If Hero has been kicking Villain around like a misbehaving puppy, then maybe Villain is trying to represent giving up after a c-bet.

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3) The 55k is donktastic

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The final table bubble probably less so (but see LFT's post in MTT Community).

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4) I'd call.

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Agreed.

To those saying why doesn't Hero bet turn: this is way ahead/way behind, and although you are ahead much more often than behind, you aren't likely to win two bets from QQ, which is the best hand you are beating. So you can bet either the turn or the river for value, but not both. Assuming you aren't folding at any point, you'll lose less versus quads or aces full by checking turn and calling a river bet. Also, QQ is more likely to call river than turn, since a turn call doesn't guarantee a showdown, and Villain has to fear a river bet that he can't call. So check turn and call/bet river is definitely the way to go.

To those saying why would quads shove the river: If you aren't shoving quads here, start. 99% of players are not folding an A for anything.

woodguy · #10 07-23-2006, 06:58 PM

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2) If villian had quads and really thought you had a boat, why on earth would he not value bet the turn and better price you in on the river?

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The rule of Zeebo, which is something like "if you think your opponent has a boat which you can beat, push all in because no one folds boats, regardless how weak that boat is on that board"

Regards,
Woodguy