Good spot? Bad Spot? Does it matter?

[A_PLUS]

Party 40K

Bubble just broke, blinds just moved to 1.5/3K, some small ante.
Villan has been aggressive, but he had the stack on the bubble, so I dont want to get too carried away with that.

Villan min-raised UG (a lot of his have been) to 6K
Hero is in CO with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], with 17K.

Villan folded the last time he open min-raised UG, but that was when the only stack that covered him bet 24K. I know he isnt folding, but at this point, does it matter?

I have already run numbers on this, and will post them later. I wanted to see what everyone else thought. But I think this spot goes beyond CEV.

I need to accumulate a crazy amount of chips to get to a final table. With 6xBB, I am basically pushing every orbit, probably twice if I can. 13xBB, allows me much more 'play' (resteals, BoB plays, SNG, etc). Given that the bogey is so far out of site, I think the value of 13xBB is worth more than what CEV would suggest.

thoughts on either part?

[JCool]

Looks like an easy push to me. You're in the redzone with a pretty decent hand and little fold equity and your up against a more aggressive, wider opening range person at the table.

[A_PLUS]

How wide to you think he is opening UG? Assuming he is a decent player (which I am assuming). He was agressive with a big stack on the bubble. Good players opening ranges, should be cut in 1/2 at least, probably more.

[NoahSD]

I'm assuming this is 9-handed... otherwise things change a lot. If he's opening UTG with a loose image just after the bubble burst, he's probably not opening too loose.

His actual range depends a ton on the other stacks at the table and how they've been playing, so whether to push ATs here depends a lot on that too. In general, I think this is a fold, and my pushing range here is 88+/AJ+.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming this is 9-handed... otherwise things change a lot. If he's opening UTG with a loose image just after the bubble burst, he's probably not opening too loose.

His actual range depends a ton on the other stacks at the table and how they've been playing, so whether to push ATs here depends a lot on that too. In general, I think this is a fold, and my pushing range here is 88+/AJ+.

[/ QUOTE ]

10 handed.

My table math really betrayed me here, and I jammed before I realized it. Looking back, be would have to have had to be opening way light (KJo, 55, etc) for this push to be right.

I do think it is correct to take slightly the worst of it with my chips stack. In fact I will usually push the first unopened pot I see regardless of cards or position. But this was definitely the worst of it, which should always be avoided. At least open pushing ends up [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] 50%+ of the time.

[somerook]

What's villain stack? (will help determine FE)

If you're jamming - you're prolly against small pair, suited connectors, monsters

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 49.3015 % 49.04% 00.26% { AsTs }
Hand 2: 50.6985 % 50.43% 00.26% { KK+, 66-22, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s }

Dead even. Am I ready to flip this early?
Nah - i fold here and wait for a better spot. First in vigorish baby

[mornelth]

While I agree that accumulating chips is paramount (and sticking it to a hyoeraggressive UTG is important too) - ATs is the hand I throw away without much regret - no FE and dominated too often. I doubt villain opens with ANYTHING that you currently beat (maybe suited connectors, but probably not right after the bubble has burst). Gap concept all the way, baby!!! Open wide, but wait for a better hand to touch sloppy seconds...

[TakenItEasy]

The minraise and the fact that he is often minraising is what gets me. It kind of implies that he is trying to play postflop with a wider range. I'm not that familiar with Paty, what are the stack sizes like?

You kind of implied that he had more than one raise size, any reads there?

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
Party 40K

Bubble just broke, blinds just moved to 1.5/3K, some small ante.
Villan has been aggressive, but he had the stack on the bubble, so I dont want to get too carried away with that.

Villan min-raised UG (a lot of his have been) to 6K
Hero is in CO with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], with 17K.

Villan folded the last time he open min-raised UG, but that was when the only stack that covered him bet 24K. I know he isnt folding, but at this point, does it matter?

I have already run numbers on this, and will post them later. I wanted to see what everyone else thought. But I think this spot goes beyond CEV.

I need to accumulate a crazy amount of chips to get to a final table. With 6xBB, I am basically pushing every orbit, probably twice if I can. 13xBB, allows me much more 'play' (resteals, BoB plays, SNG, etc). Given that the bogey is so far out of site, I think the value of 13xBB is worth more than what CEV would suggest.

thoughts on either part?

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously, I would love to be first in on this hand, but we don't have that here.

I think is a call. You're 100% right about the 40k, being ITM doesn't even mean anything in this tourney, as there's still 200 people left, and the blinds are only going to go up more steeply. If you say his raising range is wide, I'd push here and hope for the best. Maybe we're up against a worse ace, or a coinflip with a TON of equity (nevermind the CEV consideration you're basically talking about, having 6 BBs is no good).

And yes, he's calling you something like 85% of the time here, because its the 40k and most people are idiots.

Seriously, I would *not* assume he's a good player, even if he has a stack.

edit: and it's UTG, not UG, you donk.

Just to add, though ATs isn't a great hand, and I'd much much rather be first in, you have 6 BBs, and the blinds will go up fast. I just don't think you have a good chance of getting a better hand soon enough. Hope for him to have a lower pair, which is entirely possible (people often minraise lower pairs in these things for some reason). I would *not* be surprised to see 99-, suited connectors, or worse aces at least 50% of the time here.