Is this an obvious push?

TheDunePariah · #1 07-19-2006, 03:58 PM

Button is pretty solid, at about 25/12. BB is around 50/11. Good number of hands on both of them.

The check/min-reraise, combined with button's flat call, really threw me for a loop. Should my move be painfully obvious to me?

Should I push here, getting button off a big draw like 87dd, KTdd, etc., so that I can isolate Fishy McMinraise? Who's scared of slowplayers?

Ack! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($98.43)
BB ($59.95)
UTG ($50.30)
Hero ($155.41)
CO ($61.57)
Button ($280.82)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50. UTG posts a blind of $1. CO posts a blind of $1.
UTG (poster) checks, Hero calls $1, CO (poster) checks, Button calls $1, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($6) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $1, Hero raises to $6, CO folds, Button calls $6, SB folds, BB raises to $11, UTG folds, Hero...?

QuentinCompson · #2 07-19-2006, 04:12 PM

If you had any reads on BBs minireraise range that'd be wonderful, but without a read there, the mini-3-bet is somewhat hard to figure out. It is a bad play with any hand, and the only hand BB might have that we're behind is 9T. This is because we would expect BB to raise pf with 88, JJ, and TT. The most likely hands for a fishy fish like BB to have are paired gutshots and worse two pairs, I think.

It is likely that button has a draw, possibly a combo.

I like a standard reraise, but a push is quite excessive because I think you lose a lot of value from button, if he improperly chases a draw. There is $30 in the pot before you act, so bumping it to 50t seems good to me. Then you'll likely stack BB and get Button out. Button is almost never slowplaying here because the board is extrememly dangerous for a set or even a made straight to allow a cheap turn. If the button pushes, I like a call.

car ramrod · #3 07-19-2006, 04:17 PM

I think this might be a good spot to call, and push the turn on a non scare card.

QuentinCompson · #4 07-19-2006, 04:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think this might be a good spot to call, and push the turn on a non scare card.

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, a call on the flop lets a ton of potential draws see a cheap turn, and there are a TON of potential scare cards.

Secondly, pushing the turn would be quite an overpush with pot at 40 and hero sitting with over $100 and button covering.

EDIT: changed turn pot size from 36 to 40.

car ramrod · #5 07-19-2006, 04:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
First of all, a call on the flop lets a ton of potential draws see a cheap turn, and there are a TON of potential scare cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, but button is either drawing or has a monster, if we just call flop we can see what he does. There are a ton of turn cards that kill us, so why not wait to our equity goes way up if a safe card comes.

I think even if we raise big on the flop we still get called by good draws, so why not wait to see a turn card and we can get away from our hand if a bad card comes.

Maybe a push is not necessary on the turn, but a big bet or raise.

jmc999 · #6 07-19-2006, 04:49 PM

Call and re-evaluate on the turn?
We're drawing to a 4-outer if we're behind (88,T9), otherwise we're way ahead.

A hand like KdTd would be a drawing favorite that won't fold if you push.

car ramrod · #7 07-19-2006, 04:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Call and re-evaluate on the turn?
We're drawing to a 4-outer if we're behind (88,T9), otherwise we're way ahead.

A hand like KdTd would be a drawing favorite that won't fold if you push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am confused by your post. What line are you suggesting? You say we are either drawing to 4 outs, or we are way ahead, then you say that there could be a big draw that has a small edge over us.

Adrian20XX · #8 07-19-2006, 04:54 PM

I remember a phrase I read here in this forum, and this is the perfect time to apply it:
"Double pair is not worth your stack"
I'll call, and see what the turn brings

aces_dad · #9 07-19-2006, 04:56 PM

Double pair (and top 2 in particular) can be quite profitable.

If the line is to just call flop, you need to be disciplined to fold to many scare cards on turn vs heavy action.

jmc999 · #10 07-19-2006, 05:05 PM

ramrod:
I'm suggesting we call and see what BB does on the turn before I decide if he has T9 or the obvious diamond/straight draw. (or something like QT for the top pair/gutshot)

The OP wondered if pushing was correct in this situation (in an attempt to fold out button's draw) -- I don't think it is.

If another diamond or straight card falls, I'm not going to be calling any large bets, especially if button is still in the hand. However, if a blank hits and BB checks, I'll think that we're ahead.

Is my line of thinking flawed?