QJo in the BB vs potential steal-raise

[Donkey Kong]

Villain is almost totally unknown. Only have about 20 hands on him, but he has played a fair amount of hands (VPIP about 50%). He has seemed poor, going too far with his hands.

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Donkey Kong is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Donkey Kong calls.

Flop: (4 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Donkey Kong raises</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Donkey Kong checks.

River: (4 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Donkey Kong raises</font>, SB calls.

Final Pot: 8 BB

My questions are these: How's my preflop play? OK to call preflop and then raise the flop (mainly for freecard)? I think the rest is standard procedure. Anyone disagree? All inputs are welcome.

[bottomset]

well this seems fine

if he doesn't fold much at all postflop, you are prob better off just calling the flop

if he gives up his nonpair hands fairly easy, fire out on the turn

though your read suggests that he won't be folding Ax, Kx on the turn to a bet very often, so I like the free card then, though its hard to really know with only 20hands

[sean c]

DK nice hand. The pre flop call is good. This is a really good spot for a flop raise. You picked up four outs on the turn so this is a good spot to check with outs. If the turn had been a non spade brick i would probably bet again.

Edit to add we already had the gut shot on the flop and i suck at poker. I like the turn check.

[bottomset]

nm

[Hielko]

Looks good.

[Absolution]

This is interesting. I think the play is okay, but with the pot so small it's close. Are you calling on the river when you miss and he bets out (probably every time)? If you factor in that you don't always get your free card, this could be a -EV play. If you estimate your equity at only 30% here (which may be reasonable, especially if you're folding the river unimproved), this is also a -EV play. How often do you think you are good unimproved?

My point is that you have to factor in that the pot is small, sometimes you don't get your free card and often he has at least one of your outs and/or has you dominated. The EV of this play overall is difficult to estimate, but I suspect it's close to neutral.

[Donkey Kong]

[ QUOTE ]
My point is that you have to factor in that the pot is small, sometimes you don't get your free card and often he has at least one of your outs and/or has you dominated. The EV of this play overall is difficult to estimate, but I suspect it's close to neutral.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that I'd have to take into account the fact that the pot is small. Its also true that I'd sometimes not get the free card I wanted. Lets have a look at our options:

Flop preflop? I think we've established that a fold is out of the question here. After all, we're not pushovers and we want to have the opportunity to outplay our (suspected?) poor opponent.

So when the flop hits and he makes the standard continuation bet are we going to roll over and assume he hit his hand or be certain he has a better preflop hand? We could have as many as 10 outs if we are behind (although probably not that many), but we might also be ahead: we cant discount that possibility even though its slim. We certainly have 4 outs to the nuts. I'd say folding is clearly wrong.
What about a call? Calling, as usual, doesnt gain much information. If we call we'd have no clue as to what he's holding and we'd be leaving him in charge of the hand. I really hate calling in these situations, which leaves us with only one option, raising.

If he had donked the turn I'd give up on the hand. When taking the free card i was planning on folding to a river bet unimproved.

Thanks guys for all the feedback. I havent posted in a while, so its good to have to start thinking again. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Absolution]

I agree, I was just trying to analyze it from an EV standpoint because I was interested. I would play it the same most likely. I wasn't taking into account that you generally win another bet (although, your overcard outs probably aren't always clean) on the end on average when you hit and lose no more when you don't, so that makes a big difference. With a better read I could definitely see an argument for betting the turn as a freeshowdown/semi-bluff or 3-betting preflop.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is almost totally unknown. Only have about 20 hands on him, but he has played a fair amount of hands (VPIP about 50%). He has seemed poor, going too far with his hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Preflop is a 3-bet sometimes, especially if you think it will help shut down villain and make him fold postflop.

Has he played those hands passively or aggressively? If aggressively, then I don't like the flop raise. If passively, then it's good.

Definitely check the turn and the river plays itself when you have the nuts.

[Donkey Kong]

He played the hands I noticed passively.