Speed 33: ATo ITM... not sure about this one

[bruin]

Villain has been pretty solid on the bubble and ITM. That being said, I still put him on a relatively wide range after his preflop raise.

PartyPoker $33 Speed Tournament, Big Blind is t800 with t25 antes (3 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

Button (t9535)
SB (t3415)
Hero (t7050)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="red">Button raises to t2100</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t7050 (All-in)</font>

[Count Stackula]

I would say this is pretty read dependant. If he has been trying to steal a lot then i would most likely be pushing here, but if he has not realy been stealing much i would be folding this. What about a stop n go? Could be a good spot for that

[igotBlackJak]

i would rather call this and push pretty much any flop, i.e. stopngo.

Button only has 5k to call in a 9k pot... and has you covered, so very little FE preflop imo...

With that said however, you have ATo 3 handed.

[Jay Riall]

I'm folding this, too risky for my liking when we have a great position. Meh, stop n go could be ok I suppose, for sure its better than pushing pf, but a fold is the best of the three I think. AJ I think I definitely stop n go and AQ, AK I push pf.

[ShipItHereHo]

with your read i think you are better off folding here more times than not.

[bruin]

Let me add to my read... I think I have pretty good FE... Villain will fold often as I know that he notices the shorty. I think he may even fold AQ in this spot although I'm not sure about that. I'd say his calling range is 99, AK+? Maybe tighter, maybe looser but around there.

[tewall]

The calling range you're putting him on is only about 4% of possible hands he could have been dealt. You said he has a pretty wide range of hands he could be raising with. If this range is top 40% of hands, then from the fold equity alone you could push in any two cards.

Assuming he is tighter than this for his initial raise, say top 33%, then from ICM calculation I get your raise is +EV by about 6% (i.e. you raise your equity by about 6% by raising).

Assuming that the pretty wide range you put him on was the top 1/3, and that he would call with twice as many hands as you suggested, would make your -EV by about 5%.

If you are accurate in your assessment of his calling range, and the pretty wide range he would raise with includes at least top 40% of hands, then the push is very easy. It's only if you overestimate how many hands he'll raise with, and underestimate how many hands he'll call with that you get into a -EV situation, a scenario which seems unlikely.

[bruin]

tewall- your posts rock..

If you don't mind, would you be willing to PM me your IM screenname?

[Ditch Digger]

I'd fold button needs to call 4900 to win 9600 if villain is "pretty solid" he's not folding. Actually, if villain is smart he's only making this type of raise with hands that crush you.