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#1
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$25NL KK, proper turn play with the overpair
Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.25 BB (10 handed)
Villian is 15/5/2.1 based on ~375 hands saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font> CO ($77.30) Button ($10.70) <font color="#C00000">Hero ($24.75)</font> BB ($25) UTG ($23.95) UTG+1 ($8.25) UTG+2 ($9.15) <font color="#C00000">MP1 ($54.90)</font> MP2 ($32) MP3 ($31.85) Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $1</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3.25</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $2.25. Flop: ($6.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4.25</font>, MP1 calls $4.25. Turn: ($15.25) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> What's my best line? |
#2
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Re: $25NL KK, proper turn play with the overpair
Pot it
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#3
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Re: $25NL KK, proper turn play with the overpair
[ QUOTE ]
Pot it [/ QUOTE ] And leave himself with 2 bucks? |
#4
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Re: $25NL KK, proper turn play with the overpair
push
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#5
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Re: $25NL KK, proper turn play with the overpair
I'll elaborate.
this board is really, really wet JT is drawing, as is any spades, etc. He is likely to hold AQ or even KQ and will stack off if you push here, so just make it happen. I don't think you can be wrong by pushing. If the board was dryer, you could crai, but this isn't an appropriate time for that IMO. |
#6
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Re: $25NL KK, proper turn play with the overpair
[ QUOTE ]
I'll elaborate. this board is really, really wet JT is drawing, as is any spades, etc. He is likely to hold AQ or even KQ and will stack off if you push here, so just make it happen. I don't think you can be wrong by pushing. If the board was dryer, you could crai, but this isn't an appropriate time for that IMO. [/ QUOTE ] So what to make of opp only raising 5% of his hands? If he raises the top 5.4% of hands he is raising 99+,AQ+,AJs. Now it is only 375 hands, but he is in MP1 not CO or Button, so I think expecting him to be raising/calling with hands like JT is less likely. Due to position, and the fact he called the raise, he may be even tighter like TT+,AQs,AK. And I have Ks so AKs of spades isn't a possible holding. What will call an AI: AQ,QQ+,and maybe AsJs. Against that range I'm only a 52.7% favorite. if it were the tighter range than he will call the AI with: AQs,QQ+ against that range I'm a 26% dog. Am I just seeing too many monsters? What I actually did: <font color="white"> went against my gut and bet $10, was raise AI, and called. He had QQ and rivered quads. </font> |
#7
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Re: $25NL KK, proper turn play with the overpair
I push. Even though Villain's range is narrow, I don't think he is ahead of you here too often. In my opinion the scariest holding for villain is QQ, and that is a rare occurence.
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#8
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Re: $25NL KK, proper turn play with the overpair
AA would call a push I believe. Or atleast I would if I had AA.
KK is a differnet story... |
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