60 - KK bubble situation

madbeetz · #1 07-06-2006, 12:38 AM

No reads except button is pretty weak as a player. Now, do I instacall this, or fold? You may think folding is crazy, but is may not be bad considering I am covered here... thoughts?

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t400 with t25 antes (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t2765)
Button (t2800)
Hero (t2740)
BB (t5195)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="red">CO raises to t2740 (All-in)</font>, Button calls t2740, Hero calls t2515 (All-in), <font color="gray">BB folds</font>

Final Pot (t8695) (3 players)

madbeetz · #2 07-06-2006, 12:41 AM

This may seem stupid, but why risk getting sucked out on, when i can fold into the money?

Sykes · #3 07-06-2006, 12:48 AM

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This may seem stupid, but why risk getting sucked out on, when i can fold into the money?

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because you have KK

DevinLake · #4 07-06-2006, 12:43 AM

If you had 30 more chips it would be a call. However, I think you have to fold this. These two essentially have even stacks which means the bubble is ending here or in the next couple hands.

Sykes · #5 07-06-2006, 12:48 AM

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If you had 30 more chips it would be a call. However, I think you have to fold this. These two essentially have even stacks which means the bubble is ending here or in the next couple hands.

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he has KK here. i'm not folding.

madbeetz · #6 07-06-2006, 12:52 AM

but, there is the chance I will get sucked out on, right? Whereas, if I fold, I am guaranteed to get ITM, right? I am fairly certain folding is correct here. Anyone else care to chime in...

Sykes · #7 07-06-2006, 12:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
but, there is the chance I will get sucked out on, right? Whereas, if I fold, I am guaranteed to get ITM, right? I am fairly certain folding is correct here. Anyone else care to chime in...

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yes, but if you win, you have a 99% shot at 2nd, and a good shot at first.

if you fold, you have a 99% shot at 3rd, a decent but not great shot at 2nd, and need to get absurdly lucky for first.

madbeetz · #8 07-06-2006, 01:17 AM

I see your argument. I ran the ranges, and found I am winning between 50-55% of the time. If I win, I am guaranteed 2nd... Possibility of winning. So, say I win 60% of the time, and get 2nd 40% of the time. Over a 10 game sample. If I call, I lose around 45-48% of the time, and win 52-55% of the time. I make about 100$ more by calling the shoves than by folding...over the 10 game simulation that is.

ShipItHereHo · #9 07-07-2006, 01:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
but, there is the chance I will get sucked out on, right? Whereas, if I fold, I am guaranteed to get ITM, right? I am fairly certain folding is correct here. Anyone else care to chime in...

[/ QUOTE ]

there is also a chance that you wont even make it itm if you fold to.

ShipItHereHo · #10 07-07-2006, 01:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
but, there is the chance I will get sucked out on, right? Whereas, if I fold, I am guaranteed to get ITM, right? I am fairly certain folding is correct here. Anyone else care to chime in...

[/ QUOTE ]

there is also a chance that you wont even make it itm if you fold to.

[/ QUOTE ]

ugh. just saw where button called. i would fold this 2 now.