Two Pair Counterfits on the Turn on an allready scary board

[nomadtla]

UTG is a dingbat (47/4.9/0.78 over 121 hands) as can be told by his UTG post. Other flop caller is unknown.

Stars
.25/.5 (10 players)
Preflop: Hero is BB with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG (poster) checks, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks

Flop: (6 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, <font color="red"> Hero Bets </font>, UTG calls, 2 folds, Button calls, 1 fold

I led the flop cause this is the kind of flop that freezes people. I thought I might not have a chance for a c/r and giving a lone diamond a free card would be awful.

Turn: (4.5 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero ?

That J really effs my world if I wasn't allready behind. The pot is not huge so I was thinking bet/fold is that right? Comments on any other part of the hand are also appreciated.

[tiltaholic]

lead the turn.

play out your orbit.

move up [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[BigBadBabar]

hero bets. it seems more likely that people are chasing a diamond.

bbb

[Str8Fish]

No reason to think you're behind now... I'd bet/fold too.

[Rednas]

Bet and fold to a raise.
What would you do if somebody calls and the river isn't a diamond and doesn't improve your hand?

[OrigamiSensei]

I like the flop bet, especially if someone with an ace but no two pair raises quickly behind you. You can't protect the hand but your bet and someone else's raise could serve to do so. Giving a free card is a disaster here.

The problem here is that the flush draw has the right odds to call and as you correctly note you are behind to any A4+ or any jack, certainly reasonable possibilities. Your bet will not be likely to fold anybody at these levels. Call me weak tight but it's time to go into check/call mode and if based on the aggression numbers a passive gets aggressive you might even lay it down. Try to see a showdown cheap.

[dchz]

i think the bet/fold is about right, i seriously doubt you are behind a good ace, but you are you can probably get a split out of it or get him to fold cause of the flush

[OrigamiSensei]

dchz, I doubt hero is behind a "good" ace but ace-rag where rag&gt;3 is definitely possible, nay, probable at these limits. A jack would also have kept the LPs in and trip jacks in the hands of a passive may still not result in a raise. If opponent is on a better ace-rag the split only comes if a high enough card hits the river to counterfeit opponent's rag. OP is marginal at best to win or split, I'm guessing 15%-20%. I know it sucks to think about giving up on two pair but I think there are better spots to get one's money in than this hand.

[Gib]

I don't think you can do anything but b/f. The interesting part is how you'll play it if a non-[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hits on the river (if they all call your turn bet).

Also, I've been thinking about this for a while; would anyone here post UTG for metagame purposes?

[drzen]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you can do anything but b/f. The interesting part is how you'll play it if a non-[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hits on the river (if they all call your turn bet).

Also, I've been thinking about this for a while; would anyone here post UTG for metagame purposes?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. The fish don't care and the good players will only be confused for a couple of hands.