settle this hand argument...

[Megenoita]

Party 5/10, I'm sweating OurHouse. I can't get the converter to work...I know there's a new converter link if someone will hook me up.

5 handed, OH is MP with Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and open-raises.

Villain is just4u416 (27/17) and 3-bets from CO I believe. Rest fold, OH calls.

Flop (6.5 SBs): 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero checks, villain bets, hero calls.

He said his Q, J, and back door flush draw outs are enough to peel. Is this standard?

I was arguing a check/fold...thoughts?

[Woolygimp]

I fold. Villain could very likely have AQ,AJ,JJ,QQ,AA,KK.
I think most of his outs are tainted, and backdoor flush and straights are only 1/25. Definately not enough to peel.

Besides reverse implied odds are a bitch... He's got the better hand, give him the pot.

[hemstock]

Yes you have to see the turn.

[jt1]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes you have to see the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]


There are a couple of reasons why I disagree with this. 1) Hero is only getting about a break even price. 2) Hero may be reverse dominated 3) Villain could easily have a set or a pp and a straight draw which increases our reverse implied. 4)Villain has position

[Cancuk]

a call is -EV. What's the pot? 3 1/2 bets?

[Spy Dog]

I'm check-folding. You have Queen high against a decent player OOP in a small pot with no chance of spiking a card on the turn that you feel comfortable checkraising.

[Megenoita]

I realize you're joking, but he's getting 7.5:1, really 7:1 because of rake.

[Our House]

[ QUOTE ]
I realize you're joking, but he's getting 7.5:1, really 7:1 because of rake.

[/ QUOTE ]
Actually, I didn't notice after the first glance, but neither of us were in the blinds, so I was getting 8.4:1 (7SB + 1.4SB in dead money) less rake.

At worst, I'm drawing slim to 88 (3 combos). Next, I have 1.5 outs* against AA, KK and QQ (15 combos). Then, I have 4 outs* against AQ, AJ, KQ and KJs (39 combos). Lastly, I have 7 outs* against 77, 99, TT, AK, AT, A9s and A8s (56 combos).

When considering reverse implied odds, also consider:

A) Implied odds.....the times I hit (pair, 2 pair, straight, flush) and get paid by a worse hand.

and

B) Fold equity......I'm c/ring a non ace or king diamond turn which may win me the pot against half of those combos listed above.


Looking at everything at around 8:1, I think the decision is very close.


*I counted the BDFD as 1 effective out.

[Our House]

[ QUOTE ]
At worst, I'm drawing slim to 88 (3 combos). Next, I have 1.5 outs* against AA, KK and QQ (15 combos). Then, I have 4 outs* against AQ, AJ, KQ and KJs (39 combos). Lastly, I have 7 outs* against 77, 99, TT, AK, AT, A9s and A8s (56 combos).

[/ QUOTE ]
EDIT: I forgot JJ. That falls into the 4 outs range. 39 combos should look like 42 now.

[jrbick]

I estimated that if we improve on the turn, we beat about 47% of villain's hand range assuming that there's no A or K on the river. I dont' see how we can raise when we do hit a pair, so we get 3.5:1 to call down from here. We may need to even bet/call the river if it's still Q or J high so it might cost us more a lilttle over half the time when we're behind and get raised. This could be offset a little bit though by the times that villain just calls our bet in fear of a better hand (i.e. he's only got 1P, etc). If we hit our flush I dont' think we get much more than this since we pretty much need to bet the river to which villain will probably just call. Anyway.

on the flop I thought it was interesting.

7.5:1 (11.7%) to peel. We're about 19-20% ( 47- 9 or 10 diaomnds / 10 or 9) to hit a diamond on the turn that will keep us there to the river. So, looking at it this way + the little bit of equity you can attribute for the 47% of the time that we beat villain w/ a Q or a J, I thought it might be pretty close, if not, totally correct to peel here HU. On diamond turn we're definitely making money by calling there too so the flop peel wasn't as bad as some were making it out to be. Granted, our Q or J gives a redraw to a fwe of villain's 3 betting hands.


Trouble verses KQ, AJ, AQ, 88, JJ, QQ, KK, AA -- 57 combos (53%)

Improved Turn pulls ahead of: 77, 99, TT, AT (I guess), AK -- 50 combos (47%)

Some of the "trouble" hands are only trouble some of the time anyway when he actually has that hand (KQ, AJ, AQ) and we hit that one shared card.