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#1
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Table has been pretty aggressive, villian seemed fairly tight and just got his big stack a couple hands ago when he got AI preflop with AA.
PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t4000 with t200 antes (7 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com UTG (t48190) UTG+1 (t71635) MP1 (t178168) CO (t72370) Button (t137820) SB (t152141) Hero (t104111) Preflop: Hero is in BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to t16000</font>, Hero calls t12000 Flop: (t35400) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players) <font color="red">SB bets t20000</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to t87911 (All-in)</font>, SB calls t67911 Turn: (t211222) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players) River: (t211222) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players) |
#2
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According to my math..
Let's say he folds half the time so I win the 53400 in the pot 50% of the time. I calculated my equity against villian's hand and it was 35% so 17.5% of the time I win 121000 or so and 32.5% of the time I lose the 88000 in front of me. If I did the math right (and I'm not sure if I did or not) I should average a 20k gain or a 20% stack increase, but I bust 1/3 of the time and given that I had a top 10 stack of 50 or so left, I dunno, thoughts? |
#3
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anyone?
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#4
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I fold preflop.
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#5
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[ QUOTE ]
I fold preflop. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I think that was a bad call, maybe if we were deeper though. |
#6
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Since you have described villain as tight, he raised PF (granted, from the SB), and the only showdown you have seen from him was AA, I think a 50% likelihood of his folding is optimistic.
However, I ran some numbers, and even if he folds only 30% of the time and your only outs are your straight cards, you are still at just below neutral value (-347 by my calculations). So if you think he is folding in the neighborhodd of 50% of the time, it is a +value push. If villain is c-betting a missed flop and your 9 and 10 are both outs as well, it becomes a much better value. This result really surprises me, since without running any numbers I would have said it is a definite fold. I am interested to see what the more statistically sophisticated players think. |
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