Stop and Go with AK

[jcm4ccc]

Is this better than pushing preflop? On the bubble of a $10 + $1 tourney

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t2000/t4000
(Ante: t200)
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t77401
UTG+1: t38356
MP1: t16356
MP2: t58756
CO: t195082
Button: t33414
SB: t58530
Hero: t42301

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 raises to t12000</font>, 4 folds, Hero calls t8000 <font color="#aaaaaa">(pot was t18000)</font>.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t27600, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets t4156 (size of MP1's stack)</font>

[registrar]

I don't understand this at all as a stopngo. Pushing the nut flush draw makes sense.

The idea of the stop and go is that you can make stronger hands fold post flop, when you can't pre-flop. I don't see any pocket pair folding on this board on the flop. Weaker aces can fold to a flop push, but you'd rather get all the chips in before the flop.

Am I missing something here? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand this at all as a stopngo. Pushing the nut flush draw makes sense.

The idea of the stop and go is that you can make stronger hands fold post flop, when you can't pre-flop. I don't see any pocket pair folding on this board on the flop. Weaker aces can fold to a flop push, but you'd rather get all the chips in before the flop.

Am I missing something here? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ] sorry, it was not the nut flush draw. I've just edited the original.

[andre006]

make him fold!!!

[rockin]

really don't understand this. Villain has 1bb left behind, is he that big of a donk, that he would fold postflop?

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
really don't understand this. Villain has 1bb left behind, is he that big of a donk, that he would fold postflop?

[/ QUOTE ] He might. Who knows?

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
really don't understand this. Villain has 1bb left behind, is he that big of a donk, that he would fold postflop?

[/ QUOTE ] He might. Who knows?

[/ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't stop n go with AK if there was significant money left, as AK is too strong.

In this case, I like the stop n go, because the fold would almost certainly be a mistake. It is unlikely villain will fold, but why not try.

[AceLuby]

If he raises 3/4 of his stack PF, he's not going to fold to a raise, no matter when it happens. This is NOT a stop and go situation. You might as well push PF.

[bambam16]

At this point it doesn't matter, get all your chips in. But yeah I push this preflop, villian doesn't have enough behind to fold.

[BPA234]

I think this is a marginally sub-optimal play. On its face, if you played just this one hand this way, one time, you would be making a slightly-cEV play. But, if you are approaching your game this way, than you are likely playing sub-optimally with greater frequency.

Strictly as a stopngo, I think this is a wasted move. IMO, the value of a stopngo is to offer you one more opportunity to control the outcome of a hand. You can get a better hand to fold, possibly get a worse hand to call (you have AA vs a tight player with JJ who would call allin on a non over flop but fold to a preflop reraise allin), get a fold with a vulnerable, marginaly superior hand that you don't want to take to the river etc.

Since, against your AK, there is no feasible scenario that a better hand (any PP, or pair with the board) would fold for 1BB on a 6 high flop, the only possible outcome is that a worse hand (unpaired overcards to the flop) would fold. As such, you are clearly making a -CEV move by forcing a worse hand to fold.

On average:

as approx. 80% favorite (AK vs AJ etc) you are yielding 2,500T$ per hand

as approx. 71% favorite (AK vs unshared overcards QJ-78) you are yielding 1750t$ per hand.

Obviously, if you look at this in the vacumn of this 1hand, it appears to be much less negative than if you extrapolate out to a factor of 10.

At 10 hands the lowest factor relative to the percentages given, you can see that if you play sub-optimally, even just 10 times(obviously a higher number of hands is likely as you wind your way to the final table and beyond) you will have yielded a a larger number of chips.

When you do the extrapolation adjusting for hands played with increasing blinds, antes and stacks the percentage of yielded chips remains constant. Running approx. 5-7% depending on the hand strengths.

The only other negative aspect that I find, is if you are on the bubble and not in a position of overwhelming table chip strength, than you should be trying to get allin to knock the other player out. Failing to do so, could turn out to be seriously -$EV if the bubble extends and you are knocked out earlier than you would have been had you busted the villain when you had the chance.