6 months expenses - outdated?

[teamdonkey]

i've seen it recommended that a player considering going "pro" should have 6 months of expenses set aside in addition to their bankroll as a safety net. I'm wondering if this advice wasn't based on live play rather than internet. A true downswing will only happen over a limited number of hands... if someone is losing over 100k hands, it's not a downswing, they're a losing player.

I would guess a run of bad luck significant enough to keep you from paying your bills would almost never run more than 40,000 hands (certainly argueable). 40k hands represents about 6 months of live play, but only 2-4 weeks online, for some players even less than that.

So i'm wondering if 1-2 months expenses isn't a more realistic number for an aspiring online pro to have in reserve (on top of their bankroll).

[threeonefour]

it all depends on how risk averse you are. fwiw most people on this forum are very risk averse. that might not be for you. so take everyone's advice with a grain of salt.

[matt777]

A lot of financial planners recommend that everyone, not just poker players, have eight months of expenses just in case an emergency happens and you are unable to work. I think it would be extremely risky to only have 1-2 months worth of expenses set aside. If you want to go pro, just wait an extra month or two before you quit your old job and save up some money.

[teamdonkey]

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A lot of financial planners recommend that everyone, not just poker players, have eight months of expenses just in case an emergency happens and you are unable to work.

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I have a full time job at the moment. If another job was offered to me that i felt was better, i wouldn't balk just because i don't have 6-8 months expenses saved up. Thus it shouldn't stop me from switching to poker full time either. I assume the 6 month recommendation is because a downswing could possibly last that long when playing live, but online that's not really a possibility.

[ QUOTE ]
If you want to go pro, just wait an extra month or two before you quit your old job and save up some money.

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obviously i feel I make money faster playing poker, so as long as my risk of ruin is low, this is counterintuitive.

[MathEconomist]

Well conceivably illness could prevent you from focusing enough to log the hours needed for a full time job. If you were switching from a very stable job to a more unstable career, most people would recommend having living expenses saved up. Obviously, you can't be fired from poker, but just because a downswing is a ridculously unlikely once in a lifetime event doesn't mean it won't happen to you. Besides, if you fail you probably want some living expenses saved up while you look for a new job.

[Tiltguru]

A downswing is not a ridiculously unlikely once in a lifetime event.

[vypremik]

A steady income is hard to replace with the uncertainty of poker income. If you do not keep at least some reserve, you are setting youself up for failure. This is true whether you play on-line or live.

Six months plus a full bankroll is conservative, especially for an on-line player. It is the safe way to go and will give you ample time to turn a profit if you succeed, or realize you will not turn a sufficient profit and get on with a normal life. Basically, it gives you a few months of living a normal life with low risks.

If you want to go pro with a substanstially lower amount, you need to be prepared to react to downturns more aggressively. Think about what you will give up first if you start to run short. (Eating out, new clothes, beer).

Also think about where you will get money to replace your losses if they turn really bad. Do you have a job you can fall back on? Do you have a place to borrow from? Are you willing to play lower limits for a few months and survive on less money?

Six months gives you a very nice cushion. Of course, no cushion is ever 100% secure.

So the real question is this. How badly do you want to go pro and how much are you willing to risk to do so? Do you want six months for free? If you try it with one month of expenses and fail, do you have an alternate plan?

[ChuckyB]

What would you do if something happened and you couldn't play poker?

6-8 months savings is a pretty good idea for everyone...not just poker players.

[Abbaddabba]

What could conceivably happen to you that would prevent you from being able to click a mouse? Carpal tunnel syndrome?

[Leonardo]

For Example:

Age: The younger you are, the less of a risk it is and hence less money you need.

Quality of Play: If you are very very good, you need less money.

Backup: Lets say you are 25 years old and if you were to go broke you could move into your parents house and find a job, you need a lot less money

Responsibilities: If it is just you, you need a lot less money, if you have a family, you need to go see a psychiatrist for even thinking about it.

Other Opportunities: If you are currently working in a great job, or have been offered a great job, you better have more money to quit it, because if you cant make it finding another great job will take time. If you work at Wal-Mart, dont worry so much. In saying that though, I think that the more intelligent and hard working a person is, the more likely they are to have a good job, and a good shot at making it as a pro.

In general, lets say you are 23, single, and have a good relationship with your parents. If you have 300BB, go for it. You can always get a job in 6 months time (or 2!) if it doesnt work out.