KQs, do I continue? (discounting outs with no reads)

bennyhana · #1 01-14-2006, 12:10 PM

Sorry guys, no reads. Overall, my first impression is this is a tighter table than most, but after only 4 hands, who can tell? I just sat down and this was about my 4th hand. I posted in the CO and open raised A9 and stole the blinds. Next hand I had QQ and saw the flop with 3 others and won on the river against a J9o that caught a piece of the flop. I folded the next hand, and then I get this one:

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: (5 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero ??

This is where I have a problem. At this point I'm 95% sure he has an Ace. Is my flush draw worth continuing?

If he has an Ace and no boat, I have ~9 outs. How many do I count as dirty, assuming he has an Ace and is not semi bluffing a flush draw of his own? I'm thinking fold is the right play here. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Jaran · #2 01-14-2006, 12:20 PM

(putting on flame resistant clothing)

Because the turn was a heart and you are now HU, I would have checked behind on the turn. If the turn were not a heart, I would suggest a bet/fold. The reason I like a check here is just for the situation you find yourself in here. You really can't fold to the c/r, because you are getting 7.5:1 on a 4.5:1 shot, but you really hate to call it. If there were a way to guarantee you put in exactly one bet on the turn, and got to the river, I would take it. Since there isn't, check behind.

-Jararn

jb9 · #3 01-14-2006, 12:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you are getting 7.5:1 on a 4.5:1 shot, but you really hate to call

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I really like calling with those odds.

I like the turn bet, call the check/raise. If you think he has an Ace 90% of the time, you can fold a non-heart river.

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S · #4 01-14-2006, 12:48 PM

easy bet/call

bennyhana · #5 01-14-2006, 01:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I really like calling with those odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling with those odds are fine, but against a check raise, what [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] cards do you feel safe catching on the river?

I'm gonna grind this a minute. I'm seeing 1 heart card that could hurt me. The one that matches his kicker. So if I hit my case heart, and he bets, I should just call the river, because he shouldn't call a raise with a worse hand.

Sorry to ramble, just thinking out loud and hoping my logic is right. Without a read, I don't think it makes much difference.

But what kind of read am I looking for?

If this guy is a 19/8/1.5 type of player, I could assume he has the A and could have any suited card with it. Being somewhat aggressive, he could also have 2 hearts (unlikely), or 2 diamonds. Would this type of player try this with a smaller pocket pair? With that read, I don't really like any heart that falls on the river.

If he is a 30/4/.05 type, I think I can rule out the semi bluff check raise. I might consider a bigger Ace, if his cold calling stats are low enough. If a 2-9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] came on the river, I would like it.

Against a maniac type, say 60/20/3. I hate these guys. First off I would expect to get raised preflop. If I noticed any pattern in his post flop play, I could try and get him to fold the turn with a 3-bet. But I think calling down is better.

Overall, (with only 2 replies thus far) I like Jaran's line of checking behind on the turn. It's safe, and I get to SD for the same price.

AlmightyJay · #6 01-14-2006, 01:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really like calling with those odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm gonna grind this a minute. I'm seeing 1 heart card that could hurt me. The one that matches his kicker. So if I hit my case heart, and he bets, I should just call the river, because he shouldn't call a raise with a worse hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you serious? If you hit a flush and raise the river, you are getting called by three aces 105% of the time.

bennyhana · #7 01-14-2006, 01:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really like calling with those odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm gonna grind this a minute. I'm seeing 1 heart card that could hurt me. The one that matches his kicker. So if I hit my case heart, and he bets, I should just call the river, because he shouldn't call a raise with a worse hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you serious? If you hit a flush and raise the river, you are getting called by three aces 105% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, I agree, but how often am I going to see a boat?

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S · #8 01-14-2006, 01:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Overall, (with only 2 replies thus far) I like Jaran's line of checking behind on the turn. It's safe, and I get to SD for the same price.

[/ QUOTE ]

his hand range includes weaker Qs, any gutter double broadway, any flush draw, and quite possibly a pocket pair at this level. the vast majority of these hands are paying off your value bet on the turn. he hasnt played this like an ace so far, whats more there are only 2 left in the deck.

on the small chance he actually has an ace, chances are good that you have 8 flush outs, thus reducing the cost because you can profitably call after semi bluffing.

not betting this turn is.... whatever the opposite of spew is. its like someone else spewed on the road and you have scooped it up, put it in a stew and then ate it with a glass of red.

bennyhana · #9 01-14-2006, 02:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
not betting this turn is.... whatever the opposite of spew is. its like someone else spewed on the road and you have scooped it up, put it in a stew and then ate it with a glass of red.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK OK. You're right. But when check raised, what am I looking for/what is my action on the river?

milesdyson · #10 01-14-2006, 02:43 PM

checking the turn here is weak. you have the best hand a ton. he can have KJ Q9 KT TJ 55 a ton of crap that you beat. do not give him a free card when he will pay for it.

so you get check raised. oops, he has an ace. luckily we're not losing an incredible amount on this street because we still have a decent amount of outs.

the turn is a definite call. sure it sucks when he hits his boat or has it already but you're getting much too good a price to call. if you hit your flush it is a must raise. i don't know why you think he won't call with a worse hand, because i don't know one person in the world who will fold trip aces for fear of the backdoor flush. so raise freely.