What a TERRIBLE turn card (Stars $215)

[MSUcougar]

This from the Stars $215 2nd chance tourney...

Seat 1: GS888 (12110 in chips)
Seat 2: Premier (1570 in chips)
Seat 3: MSUcougar (7525 in chips)
Seat 4: armen13 (2255 in chips)
Seat 5: TOTY (3290 in chips)
Seat 6: malcomx (3020 in chips)
Seat 7: PickyTooth (3830 in chips)
Seat 8: WSULeifJ (3230 in chips)
Seat 9: SamENole (11275 in chips)
SamENole: posts small blind 75
GS888: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to MSUcougar [Ks Kd]
Premier: folds
MSUcougar: raises 300 to 450
armen13: folds
TOTY: calls 450
malcomx: folds
PickyTooth: folds
WSULeifJ: folds
SamENole: folds
GS888: calls 300
*** FLOP *** [Tc Jd Qc]
GS888: checks
MSUcougar: bets 800
TOTY: calls 800
GS888: folds
*** TURN *** [Tc Jd Qc] [Kc] (POT approx 3k)
MSUcougar: checks
TOTY: bets 2040 and is all-in
MSUcougar: ?????????????

First off, what's your initial play on the turn first to act? Who calls the push...?

[silencee]

I call. The check shows him you're scared, I think he could have any pair here.

If not, you have around probably 13 outs. 3 aces, 1 king, 3 queens/jacks/tens.

I like how you played it, though I may lead out on the turn. His current raise gives you almost no information, whereas had he reraised after you led out his range would be much shorter.

Then again, you'd be priced in for sure with 13 outs (11 at worst). One way or another, I think the money has to go in here.

Oops missed the flush. I still think this is a call, but it's much closer than it was when I first looked.

[adanthar]

Meh, if he's ever semibluffing you have to call, so river a boat.

[NHFunkii]

worst top set ever. At least it wasn't the Jc on the flop.
That said, I call. I also check. I think he bluffs a heck of a lot there considering it's the ultimate scare card

[Yuv]

what did he call 25% of his stack on the flop that doesn't beat us now? Only KQ and that's somewhat unlikely.

[NHFunkii]

I have no idea what he called with, as there isn't a single hand I would call that flop with.

[THEOSU]

he turned the royal flush and you're drawing dead, obv.

meh. i call because i suck at poker.

[tiger7210]

I call getting 2.5-1 knowing i have at least 10 outs unless he has AJc which i imagine he would have shoved on the flop and certainly wouldn't be shoving now. If you lose you still have 4500 chips and to call and win gives you over 10k. I have a real hard time laying down top set w a card to come even on a board that nasty.

[braindamaj]

I think the check is good - because it will occasionally win bets that you couldn't have won by betting (villain bluffing).

This is time to do the calculations that are shown within HOH (somehow, you're supposed to be able to do this at the table - figuring that out is still on my to do list before WSOP). Those who do this regularly, I'm sure I'm going to mess this up, so let me know where I do.
__________________________________________________ __
1) Pot odds: 1425+1600+2040 = 5065(total in pot) to 2040(total needed to play) = about 2.5 to 1 or 5 to 2
Thats pretty damn good odds.


2) Opponents range of hands: Theres 4 types of hands here that villain may have:
a) The straight flush - you're f'd
b) Hands that beat you (any 9, any A, any two clubs).
c) Hands that are losing but can draw out - any two pair, any club.
d) Weaker hands and pure bluffs.

3) Put percentages for each of these three hand types. I'm going to use 5%/50%/25%/20% for the hell of it (good reads etc can pinpoint the accuracy on these percentages).

4) Next how often do we win against each of these hands?
a) The straight flush - oh well, sh*t happens. 0%
b) You have 13 outs - 3A 1K 3Q 3J 3T, but villain may have some of these - for the sake of making this easy (so it might almost be possible to do it at the table) lets assume that he always has 1 of them. So 12 outs/44 unknown cards (you know he has one of your outs, so that is another known card) = 27%
c)This time he has to draw out on you - if he has two pair, he has 4 outs, any club, 9 outs - club + 2pr, 13 outs. Time is still ticking - so make all this about 6 outs total, so he beats you 6/45 = 13%he beats you = you win 87%
d) villain drawing dead - you win. 100%

5) Ok compile data - left is how often he has it, right is your win %
a) 5% 0%
b) 50% 27%
c) 25% 87%
d) 20% 100%

6) do the math - so a)0 + b)27/2 = 13.5 + c)87/4 = 22 + d) 100/5 = 20 = how often you win
0+13+2+20=

55% of the time with 2.5 to 1 odds is an easy call

[braindamaj]

I'm bumping this because I think it is the first meaningful post I've ever put on here : ) And I'm also curious if anyone actually does go through this line of thinking on marginal decisions?