Decent odds but probably behind

[fiskebent]

At the FT. 8 left. 1st prize is 3K. 8th pays around $300. Villain hasen't done anything out of the ordinary.

$50+$4 (real money), hand #443,604,752
50+4 European Daily Multi Table Tournament, 4 May 2006 11:39 PM
View Previous | Next hand for this table.
Seat 2: BB ($29,014 in chips)
Seat 3: UTG ($69,071 in chips)
Seat 4: UTG+1 ($31,124 in chips)
Seat 5: Hero [10C,AC] ($48,772 in chips)
Seat 7: MP+1 ($58,073 in chips)
Seat 8: CO ($25,718 in chips)
Seat 9: Button ($61,848 in chips)
Seat 10: SB ($61,880 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
SB posts blind ($1,000), BB posts blind ($2,000).

PRE-FLOP
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero bets $5,000, MP+1 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB bets $10,000, Hero calls $7,000.

FLOP [board cards 7S,8H,JC ]
BB bets $17,014 and is all-in

The pot is 42K at this point. 17K to call.

Hero ??

[fiskebent]

I'd really like some comments on this situation.

[0evg0]

I don't understand the preflop action. Doesn't seem to add up right.

[fiskebent]

Blinds are 3K. I bet 5K. He bets 10K on top of his 2K BB. I call 7K. Pot is 25K.

After the flop he bets 17K. Pot is 42K.

[supercomputer]

It's a stop-and-go. You knew it was coming. You need to fold or push to his preflop re-raise. A10 isn't that great and I think I fold.

[0evg0]

I think this is donkified AA/KK way too often to call.

And whatever site that's from sucks at creating decipherable HHs.

[Requin]

Well, its more of a go-and-go, but ya just fold to his preflop raise. I don't understand why you're even contemplating calling now that you missed the flop.

[0evg0]

No go-go-gutshot?

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Nez477]

Blah preflop. I guess you have to call the minraise, but I'd raise to 6000 initially without antes.

Postflop... well, you are getting about 2.5 to 1. So you have to have about 28-29% equity here. With 7 outs and runner runner possibilities (Ace or Nine) you are getting about 31% equity. This is best case scenario. If villian has a set, A-J or AA, you have hardly any equity.

It's close. I guess I'd call expecting to see an overpair or AK enough of the time to make it +cEV here. $EV might be another story, I don't know.

Brad

[Requin]

Just to be clear, preflop wasn't a min raise, it was a reraise to 12,000 (7K on top). Hand history didn't include his 2000 blind.