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#1
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Bears -3 +105 is the current number on both of my sites. Still new to this watching the line move thing, just wondering, if I like the Bears (which I do), should be waiting or jumping in? Using the line-converter at sportsbookpal, it says that if the move to 2.5 puts it at -119 or lower, I'm still better off taking the 2.5. So I guess this means I should wait right?
If it's already at -3 +105, I would imagine it will hit -2.5 soon enough, is that an accurate take? Just wondering what the smart play here is. Thanks for any advice. Or should I take Carolina +3 -125 and try for a middle when the line moves? I was thinking the -125 is too expensive to try that though. |
#2
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You are laying too much at the +3 -125 for a soft middle of -2.5 (if it ever gets there). If you get +3 -125 and -2.5 -120, that is a bad bet.
According to our converter going from -3 +105 to -2.5 is worth -116. You would be getting it for -2.5 -115. That is nothing special. But, if you think that it might go to -3 +110 (they don't move off of the 3 very often in championship type games; well, i mean, as easily, because as soon as the move to -2.5 the middles are too big of a possibility and there is a lot of money being bet) then you should wait. But, if you are uncertain take the line below. I don't really see how you will middle here with EV. You can get CHI -2.5 -111 (looks nice to me if you like CHI) at www.pinnaclesports.com craig |
#3
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-3+105 is the majority consensus right now, so definitely no point in buying until one of the books moves to compete with the others. pinnacle is currently -2.5-111 (sellable to -3+108) and was as high as +112 earlier in the week.
a middle would definitely be playable at +3-110 (that's where I planted my flag) but probably a bad deal at -125. I see maybe one or two places that might have -115 available, otherwise just wait for the bears line to keep going down, since that's where all the action is shading so far. |
#4
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Thanks guys. That helps a bunch.
I looked into opening an account with pinnaclesports, but the problem is that you can't take your money out without a $10 fee, unless you pull out $500 at a time. I'm not playing at those stakes yet, still learning my way :-) |
#5
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I think it is $300 unless they changed it. Sometimes they will waive it also. Just ask them.
If not, then wait for it to hit +3 +110 and then buy it down. craig p.s. You are not going to get a middle out of this. craig craig |
#6
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im taking carolina on this one.....I think they are good enough to make adjustments.
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#7
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Carolina has been the most inscrutable team in the league. Even their mid-year 6 game winning streak seems kind of specious. These underachieving up-and-down seasons from talented teams rarely culminate in playoff success. That said, I just can't back the Bears here. I'll be a spectator for this one (maybe a taste of the over).
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