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#1
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NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
Villain: 10,5/6/2 (86)
Party Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter SB: $27.37 BB: $50 Hero (UTG): $72.35 CO: $49.75 BTN: $78.35 Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG) <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, 3 folds, BB calls $1.50 Flop: ($4.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $9</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $70.35 and is All-In</font> If this is his c/r range: JJ+ and sets And this is his "call the push" range: KK+ and sets Then the EV of pushing is +$1,95 Is that too much variance? Is my handreading too pessimistic? |
#2
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Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
Forgot that he may not call in the blinds with AA-KK, so then the EV is negative, because he have more % set-combinations.
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#3
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Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
He'll have combo draws here a ton as well
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#4
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Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
i'd never fold. if villlain plays AXs preflop then i'm happy getting it in on the flop. and if u think QQ and JJ are in his range then pushing flop is probably good. and the board is somewhat drawy outside of hte flush draw...
but i wouldn't hate calling. and pushing over safe turn cards. |
#5
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Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
Well you were at the table and therefore know the player better than I do, but you don't think he'd c/r combo draws like QJs, AdJd+? And you think he's folding an overpair to your shove? A lot of tight preflop players have a tendency to get married to their hand postflop, so I don't think you should immediately assume he's folding JJ and QQ to your shove.
I would play the hand the same way you did, though. |
#6
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Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
bombs away. you're ahead of all but a set and he can have QQ/JJ here. flop c/rs don't bother me much, esp on drawy flops, because u'll see alot of worse hands. turn c/r's however are a different ball game.
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#7
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Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
I changed his ranges a bit:
__________________________________________________ ______ His c/r line is 100% consistent with: TT, 88, 44, JJ, QQ and AKs-AQs flushdraws. And 30% consistent with: KK He calls with KK and sets but not his draws (not good enough pot odds) __________________________________________________ _______ EV = -$1,53 If i put in QQ in his callingrange, then the EV is: +$3,55 You now him just as much as I do. Havent seen anything special from him. But he is tight, so i dont think he calls oop with worse than AQs or any pair (am I right?). |
#8
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Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
[ QUOTE ]
I changed his ranges a bit: __________________________________________________ ______ His c/r line is 100% consistent with: TT, 88, 44, JJ, QQ and AKs-AQs flushdraws. And 30% consistent with: KK He calls with KK and sets but not his draws (not good enough pot odds) __________________________________________________ _______ EV = -$1,53 If i put in QQ in his callingrange, then the EV is: +$3,55 You now him just as much as I do. Havent seen anything special from him. But he is tight, so i dont think he calls oop with worse than AQs or any pair (am I right?). [/ QUOTE ] i think ur math is wrong. |
#9
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Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
Ok, I can test the calculation:
How many combinations do he hold? KK............2 QQ............6 JJ............6 TT............3 88............3 44............3 AKs-FD............1 AQs-FD............1 =25 How many combinations do he fold if i push? JJ............6 TT............3 AKs-FD............1 AQs-FD............1 =11 How often do he fold? 11/25 = 44% of the time What does i win if he folds? Pot+Bet+Raise = 16,25 What is the fold EV? $16,25*44% = 7,15 What is my Equity if he calls? equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 46.114% 46.11% 00.00% 7761 0.00 { AcAs } Hand 1: 53.886% 53.89% 00.00% 9069 0.00 { KcKd, KcKh, QQ, TT, 88, 44 } What do I win if he calls? My cbet + pot + his stack = 55,25 The EV call(win)? (1-Fold%)*55,25*0,46 = 0,56*55,25*0,46 = 14 What do i loose if he calls? His stack - my cbet = 45 The EV call(loose)? (1-Fold%)*45*0,54 = 0,56*45*0,54 = -13 Total EV: EV Fold + EV Call(win) + EV Call(loose) = 7,15 + 14 - 13 = +8,15 It was close. I understand what the difference was now. I used the % number at the hold'em distribution window at pokerstove instead of counting combinations. |
#10
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Re: NL50: Cbet gets checkraised. I have overpair
And as I have experienced, this post killed the action at this topic...
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