KJs river flush vs Leatherass

[Jamie217]

villian is leatherass very solid... my image is probably taggish around 21/18...My question is simply this.
Is there any merit to shoving this river?
IMO he snap folds big Aces and sets ( which would make a great bluff by me w/o a flush)... and lower flushes are very unlikely.. Anyways I wont go into my thoughts anymore.. what are yours?

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $3/$6 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $1,527.30
BB: $539.00
UTG: $456.00
MP: $237.30
CO: $894.80
Hero (BTN): $856.50

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $6.00, MP folds, <font color="red">CO raises to $30.00</font>, Hero calls $30.00, SB folds, BB calls $24.00, UTG calls $24.00

Flop: ($123) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 Players)
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="red">CO bets $95.00</font>, Hero calls $95.00, 2 folds

Turn: ($313) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
CO checks, Hero checks

River: ($313) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">CO bets $200.00</font>,

[Jamie217]

I have 513$ behind he covers

[mythrilfox]

holy hell shove

[sauce123]

my head hurts

[tomsOn]

I'm a friend of Jamie217 and this thread annoys me, because it gives me the impression 2+2ers are for the most part robots, who are not willing to stop and give some things a bit more thought, but instead give standard, 'no-brainer' lines.

Normally I shouldn't be mad about this, but when you give thrash advice in a cocky, authoritative, patronising manner it looks ridiculous.

The points made in Jamies last post were actually mine. Leatherass is capable of good laydowns. His calling range when we push the river are only flushes. The highest flush that we beat here is 8s7s, since it's impossible for him to have Q high flush given the cards here (we exclude A,K,J,T,9), so what can he have, Q8s? I don't think so. He's very capable of folding a small flush here. Also he doesn't always bet the flop with small flushes since the Ace there is very likely to hit someone. Axs is definitely a part of his range, because it's congruent with how he played.

[ QUOTE ]
If you're not gonna get the money in when you make the 2nd nut flush, then just fold the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ridiculous. Yeah, lets abstract from reads, timing, turn and river action, pot size, ranges etc etc. Lets base our decision on a flop call. In fact we should actually go back a bit more and fold pre-flop just because we played this hand conservatively when we hit. Yeah, lets leave the game, because we're making reads instead of acting like robots.

[ QUOTE ]
if your game is so transparent that he can fold low-medium flushes

[/ QUOTE ]
If your river raise isn't transparent to a very good, thinking player that means you're playing crazy. Seriously. What kind of range can you put a guy on when he pushes river, besides a flush? A bluff? Come on.

I'm not saying a call is best. In fact I didn't give half of my thoughts on this hand. My point is this hand isn't obvious stuff and that's why Jamie217 posted it. At least give these ideas some thought, before you berate my friend. At least try.

[ipokeder]

wtf how is this even a question

[Jamie217]

[ QUOTE ]
wtf how is this even a question

[/ QUOTE ]

Im not a moron..this was my first thought as well.. but what is he going to call w/ on this river if I shove?

[xorbie]

you need to retool your game if you aren't shoving here, simple as that.

[AcTiOnJaCsOn]

it doesnt matter what hell call u with u have the second nuts, ur argument makes a little more sense if u had like 3 4 ss

[Jay Riall]

hi recallme