Straight draw on the flop

jcm4ccc · #1 06-28-2006, 03:28 PM

Push? Fold? Fold pf? Both players seem solid, nothing out of line. Final two tables of $50 tournament. My stack is a little below average. 15 players left, I'm in 9th place.

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t1000/t2000
Ante: t75
7 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t400
UTG+1: t86424
MP1: t88403
CO: t58903
Button: t19709
SB: t19478
Hero: t32031

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to t4000, MP1 calls t4000 (pot was t4150), 3 folds, Hero calls t2000 (pot was t8150).

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t12075, 3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets t5800, MP1 calls t5800,
(pot is t23675, hero has t28031) Hero ???

rockin · #2 06-28-2006, 03:37 PM

I'm torn on the preflop call. Odds are so tempting here, just hate calling with 16bb stack. We fold postflop we will have 14bb stack.

Postflop this is either shove or fold. Pot is already like 24k and you have 28k. I'm thinking a shove isn't that awful with possibly 10 outs and a reasonable amount of times you win the pot here (maybe 30-40%).

JCM you're usually pretty quick with EV calcs. Give a shove say 30% to win right here. 50%, 1 caller. 20%, 2 callers. Give initial pf raiser like top 15% hand and pf caller a top 10% hand.

bgoalie35 · #3 06-28-2006, 03:45 PM

I would really lean towards the shove. I can't fold with that much in the pot and so many outs. I'd be really interested in that EV calc too though.

jcm4ccc · #4 06-28-2006, 04:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Give a shove say 30% to win right here. 50%, 1 caller. 20%, 2 callers. Give initial pf raiser like top 15% hand and pf caller a top 10% hand.

[/ QUOTE ] I'll work something out, but if you really think they're folding 30% of the time, this is hugely profitable.

JCool · #5 06-28-2006, 04:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Give initial pf raiser like top 15% hand and pf caller a top 10% hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

If these are the ranges of the deeped stacked pf raiser and caller 7-handed and near the final table bubble, then they are playing way too tight.

rockin · #6 06-28-2006, 04:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Give initial pf raiser like top 15% hand and pf caller a top 10% hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

If these are the ranges of the deeped stacked pf raiser and caller 7-handed and near the final table bubble, then they are playing way too tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, this is just to give us a baseline.

woodguy · #7 06-28-2006, 04:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]

If these are the ranges of the deeped stacked pf raiser and caller 7-handed and near the final table bubble, then they are playing way too tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point, and the intially raise is a min-raise too.....hmmmmm.

Make me want to get involved a bit more.

I think a big part of the problem is that we have fold equity vs. the wrong hands when we push.

This is a tough spot.

What do you think of the 1/2 pot bet into 2 callers on this board? Weak or strong? I'm undecided...

Regards,
Woodguy

jcm4ccc · #8 06-28-2006, 04:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Give a shove say 30% to win right here. 50%, 1 caller. 20%, 2 callers. Give initial pf raiser like top 15% hand and pf caller a top 10% hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I decided that, against one caller, you are facing AQ. Against 2 callers, you are facing AQ and 99 (a set). Against AQ, you win 45% of the time. Against AQ and 99, you win 27% of the time.

30% of the time they fold: you end up with 51k
22.5% of the time, one caller and hero wins: 80k
27.5% of the time, one caller and hero loses: 0k
5.5% of the time, two callers and hero wins: 108k
14.5% of the time, two callers and hero loses: 0k

total: 39k
versus 28k if I fold.

Still, I think 30% fold is probably too generous.

woodguy · #9 06-28-2006, 04:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you are facing AQ and 99 (a set).

[/ QUOTE ]

If I have a set here, I jam it, not flat call, too many cards come on the turn that I really don't want to see, and I get called by the hands I want to call. (pair + draw, who are really only drawing to 8 outs that I have re-draws against, overpairs who put me on a draw etc)

Regards,
Woodguy

bobbycharles · #10 06-28-2006, 04:53 PM

What range of hands would villain smooth call a min raise and C-bet with? Villain would pop a set; quite possibly two pair. Would he smooth call a str8 draw or top pair...maybe top pair no kicker? Geez, it's a tough one.
I still think against two opponents, your "ten" outs are really compromised. If you're villain how do you play KJ?