top set, terrible board, 250 BB 5/10

[TxRedMan]

i've got $2500 and villain covers

he seems like a tourist, but probably decent and straightforward.

neither one of us has gotten out of line.

he opens for $50 in MP, i raise to $150 from the button, he reluctantly calls.

flop ($315)

A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

he checks, i bet $250, he raises to $500

what's your plan here?


fwiw this is live (wynn uncapped) and with this type of opponent this min-raise is never a naked Qc.


-Tex

[AAismyfriend]

I would start by calling.....what's the turn?

[The Velour Fog]

anything but calling seems terrible

[tuckercat]

what's wrong with calling?

[nextgenneo]

raise more pre
call flop

[Irish Mafia]

[ QUOTE ]
raise more pre
call flop

[/ QUOTE ]

[TxRedMan]

[ QUOTE ]
anything but calling seems terrible

[/ QUOTE ]

To those who advocate raising;

With these stack sizes it's awkward. Any raise makes me pot commited, and anything but a min-raise will likely only get called by a better hand, which most likely doesn't call, but instead shoves, which sucks.

The only hand that might call a raise that I beat is JJJ and AK. I'd rule out KK since I three bet him from the button and in that spot KK usually re-raises, but it's not impossible and would likely give me action if I raise the flop, but AK and KK are more unlikely given the action and the fact that three aces are accounted for.

Calling prevents the above, but also let's a club or a Q or T fall, but why are we protecting from that happening against an OOP player who check-minraised that board? Why would a straight forward player check raise that flop with these stacks with a pair+ flush draw, setting himself up for getting raised off his hand?


I think this decision is closer than it appears.


Still, what range of hands are we putting him on here?

In retrospect, I suppose AxQc would check-raise this flop, figuring to have the best hand a small % of the time and having twelve outs to improve if neccessary.


And fwiw I think that AK, QQ, JJ, and TT makeup a very large % of his range preflop, but i'm not sure how much he adjusts his range preflop with these stacks, seems like him being OOP would neutralize the width of his range to some extent.

[FatalError]

results?

[TxRedMan]

[ QUOTE ]
results?

[/ QUOTE ]

I shoved after about a minute of thought. I really felt like he had JJ given the preflop action and his reluctant call. The only other hands I considered him having were AK and AxQc, but I felt like JJ was a huge part of his range there.

He waited about two seconds before calling, and he had Qs10c, for flopped broadway. Turn was a club, river was a brick.

When I was going over his range in my head, I ruled out Q-T b/c the guy didn't seem to be the type who'd open with Q-T, consequently he didn't seem to be the type to call a three bet OOP with Q-T.

In retrospect, after he check-raises the flop it's better to call than raise unless the guy's been spewy or playing stupid LAG.


Regarding the PF raise, if he had opened for $50 in EP and I was in MP, I'd make it $200. Normally I'd make it $175 in this spot, but I was on the button, no one had limped in, and I wanted to get action and play the hand HU from the button, and tbh he probably folds for $150 more but calls $100 judging by how reluctantly he called PF.


Idk how I feel about the hand. I still like a call, but I think you can determine the value of shoving by figuring out how often he calls (or if he ever folds) with AK, AxQc, KK, JJ, KxQc, QcJx, and it seems like he'll show up with those hands much more often than he'll show up with QT or better.

Does anyone disagree with the above assumption?


I think it's really close, but having position and being deep has me feeling like it's a call and re-eval spot, and I think it increases my expectation in this hand because it gives me more options(i think i can still get paid off if I improve, but dont HAVE to pay off if I dont) and also gives me the chance to get to showdown cheaper when I dont improve, whereas shoving means none of the above.



-Tex

[donkeykong2]

i like the push, i mean we are losing about 400 $ in ev vs folding (in case he has flush or straight) which isnt an option, and villain likely calls with other sets or nut flush draw with pair or sth which we dominate much worse.