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#1
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Silly TD2-7 Theory Question
You emerge from a drunken haze only to find that you're sitting on the button at a high-stakes triple draw game. You've exposed your hand--- 7432K--- but perhaps you are lucky that's all you've exposed.
It's the last draw. You haven't yet discarded, and you only have one opponent left: Teddy KGB (though unfortunately for you he's all out of Oreos). But he's a good sport. ``I vill show my draw, too!'' he exclaims and reveals the same hand, as he waves away your attempt to negotiate a chop. ``But wait! Also, I vish to buy your button. How much for your button?'' Teddy thinks this is a great joke. The big bet is $2000. You see about $16,000 in the middle of the table and you've got $8000 left in front of you. How much do you charge Teddy for the privilege of acting second? |
#2
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Re: Silly TD2-7 Theory Question
I charge him as much as I think he'll pay, but I don't believe it's worth that much. Checking in the dark is clearly worse than getting to act last, but not like $1000 worth. I think $200 sounds about right but can't prove it.
-DeathDonkey |
#3
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Re: Silly TD2-7 Theory Question
[ QUOTE ]
Checking in the dark is clearly worse than getting to act last, but not like $1000 worth. [/ QUOTE ] Hm. Mark, can you constrain the tool to force a Player A check? I'm curious how much checking in the dark costs vs. just playing in first position. I chose the silly answer on the poll because I already know the real one. ETA: actually, this pot is bigger than the one Mark told me the real answer for. I expect the answer to be pretty close, though. |
#4
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Re: Silly TD2-7 Theory Question
Are Teddy and I the only two that have put money in this pot?
Are we drawing the last card face up? |
#5
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Re: Silly TD2-7 Theory Question
Your drunken haze prevents an answer to the first question (all you know is how much is there now.)
The last card is drawn face down. |
#6
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Re: Silly TD2-7 Theory Question
[ QUOTE ]
I charge him as much as I think he'll pay, but I don't believe it's worth that much. Checking in the dark is clearly worse than getting to act last, but not like $1000 worth. I think $200 sounds about right but can't prove it. -DeathDonkey [/ QUOTE ] I put 2k down because I want to stick it to him. I don't know what it is worth, but I think 200 is not a horible guess. We can work this out though. This is very simple (but tedious, so I am not going to do it right now, cuz I suck like that.) This is bascially a one card showdown problem if someone else wants to do the math. Teddy has a slight advantage in that he can remember his previous discards so he has a better idea of the distribution in the stub. Edit - Awesome, Mark already did the math. LAZINESS WINS AGAIN!!! |
#7
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Re: Silly TD2-7 Theory Question
Facts:
* its 8:1 * By seeing his draw you can discount your outs. * Discounting your outs wont help you determine proper pot ods, no matter what your already getting it * By knowing the dead cards, you can increase your proper bluffing frequency. I think your sucess at bluffing at the pot will be at least 4:1 against, which is of course better than the pot odds. * Giving Teddy a big bet would make your odds 4:2, or 2:1. If you hit perfect (lets assume thats 8 outs) and he calls with a rough hand like 87xxx you win an extra bet every time, refunding your investment to give up the button. In short, I think the hero is at a great advantage by acting first in this situation, a rare example where being out of position is good in 2-7. I think its worth no more than 1 small bet - 1k. I voted 1.2k since thats closest. I spent around 50 seconds on this analysis because thats what I would do playing live, someone please correct any errors they find. |
#8
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Re: Silly TD2-7 Theory Question
Perhaps it wasn't sufficiently clear in the description--- both hands are face up (before discarding) and Teddy has 7432K as well. The third round of betting has concluded. You are a dead heat pot-equity wise to win the hand.
It sounds like your answer is actually "$0 --- I'd prefer to act first" (and bluff). |
#9
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Re: Silly TD2-7 Theory Question
[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps it wasn't sufficiently clear in the description--- both hands are face up (before discarding) and Teddy has 7432K as well. The third round of betting has concluded. You are a dead heat pot-equity wise to win the hand. It sounds like your answer is actually "$0 --- I'd prefer to act first" (and bluff). [/ QUOTE ] My bad, I thought he waived his cards to say he will show if he can buy the button. Hmm.. I think its better to act first, and I want to charge him the max of course, but how much its worth is now a bit more confusing. |
#10
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Re: Silly TD2-7 Theory Question
If acting first is better than acting last here I'll quit poker <font color="white"> for a day </font>
-DeathDonkey |
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