WSoP woman in final 9 +EV?

[MCS]

Hello,

Pinnacle has up a prop on whether a woman will be in the final nine players of the Main Event, paying +294 if it hits.

Last year, there were about 600 women out of 5600 players. Assuming they are all of average skill, I calculate the chance of at least one making the final nine as 1-(5000/5600)^9 which is about 64%. So unless the women are mostly terrible, or the participation rate drops a ton, I think +294 is a great price.

Thoughts?

[Mr.JR]

It's not. Just look at Tiffany Williamson.

I also doubt that more than 10% of the field last year were women.

[MCS]

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It's not. Just look at Tiffany Williamson.

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Huh?

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I also doubt that more than 10% of the field last year were women.

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I thought so too, but that's what I read. However, I now believe the person answering the question may have been talking about the ladies-only event, which did in fact have 601 players.

In any case, I still suspect that women will make up at least 3.2% of the field, which is the breakeven point under my prior assumptions.

[Thremp]

A few things...


1) Women are of below average skill. Top MTT guys are not women. Greg Raymer, John Juanda, Chris F., Phil Ivey.... This isn't the Annie Duke-a-thon.
2) Tiffany Williamson is on of the worst MTT players ever. She couldn't beat the rake on Party Speeds long term. She cashed last year. It's a jopke.
3) 2 women has ever made final tables and thats when fields were smaller.

[MCS]

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1) Women are of below average skill. Top MTT guys are not women. Greg Raymer, John Juanda, Chris F., Phil Ivey.... This isn't the Annie Duke-a-thon.

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I'm not sure if this is true. There may be no women in the top ten, but how do we know that much about the rest of the field? I'm actually inclined to believe that the average woman is better than the average male, since they probably have to be pretty strong players to survive in the poker world, plus I suspect most of the rich ego-driven players are men.

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2) Tiffany Williamson is on of the worst MTT players ever. She couldn't beat the rake on Party Speeds long term. She cashed last year. It's a jopke.

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Right, I agree that luck is a very big factor in a single tournament, which is why I made my purely numbers-based argument.

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3) 2 women has ever made final tables and thats when fields were smaller.

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I know, but I would think they had a lower percentagewise participation as well. (Granted, the final table also comprised a larger percentage of the field.) Plus, I'm not sure how relevant that stat is today. I don't see a causal link.



"No" is available for -340, so some of you may like that bet.

[Mr.JR]

I love No at -340.

[youtalkfunny]

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I'm actually inclined to believe that the average woman is better than the average male...

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Good grief, based on what???