Today October 19th....20yr anniversary of Black Monday Crash

stephenNUTS · #1 10-19-2007, 09:36 AM

I am sure many of you were too young to remember that day,but regardless....post some thoughts on the subject,and are we close to another fateful day like that in the near future?

skindog · #2 10-19-2007, 10:10 AM

Nothing but boom times ahead, sir

Brad1970 · #3 10-19-2007, 10:19 AM

I remember it well.......has it been 20 years already??

stephenNUTS · #4 10-19-2007, 11:16 AM

Market is ironically very ugly so far today....

pureCra2z · #5 10-19-2007, 11:49 AM

Very ugly

CrushinFelt · #6 10-19-2007, 01:42 PM

I attended a symposium about it a week ago or so (I knew most of the facts and figures, but I was 3 yrs old at the time so I wanted to hear some first hadn accoutns). The panelists included the head of the CME Clearing house at the time, a trader in the SPX pit at the time, and a technical analyst. Pretty interesting overall. When asked to describe the market conditions leading up to the crash they basically described word for word what has been going on the last few months ;p

Mark1808 · #7 10-20-2007, 12:06 PM

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I am sure many of you were too young to remember that day,but regardless....post some thoughts on the subject,and are we close to another fateful day like that in the near future?

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I was the assistant manager of a large brokerage firm's office. We had a meeting and I remember telling everyone in the history of the US stock market every plunge in the past has represented a great buying opportunity as the market has always made a new high. I stopped at a fast food drive through on the way home, ordered food and drove right through and was half way home when I realized I didn't have my food! It was a tough day! I don't think at these levels we would ever see a 22% on day drop, but over a period of weeks it is entirely possible.

mal_noles · #8 10-20-2007, 06:37 PM

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I don't think at these levels we would ever see a 22% on day drop

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And this is why hedge funds blow up, ridiculous assumptions like this.

Mark1808 · #9 10-20-2007, 07:22 PM

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I don't think at these levels we would ever see a 22% on day drop

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And this is why hedge funds blow up, ridiculous assumptions like this.

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You realize in the history of the US stock market we only once had a percentage drop greater than 13% and you think it is a ridiculous to assume we probably will never see greater than a 22% drop in one day? This is not why hedge funds blow up. They typically blow up because they are highly leveraged in some highly concentrated positions. But whatever, anything is possible I wouldn't bet on a 22% one day drop happening again though.

mal_noles · #10 10-20-2007, 11:33 PM

I was oversimplifying, but yes I do think it is ridiculous to assume we can't drop 22% in a day. Plenty of hedge funds have blown up because of assuming that an outlier or unprecedented event wont occur.

Maybe its the fact that I just reread Fooled by Randomness but as a trader I never rule out any event. In fact on a monthly basis my group has a meeting to discuss how we will handle situations that are highly unlikely or that we dont ever expect to actually occur.