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#1
03-30-2007, 01:19 AM
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Future expectations of Happiness
lets pretend you play a 6 number lottery. one of two things can happen:
1. you guess 4/6 numbers and win $10,000 2. you guess 6/6 numbers and win $20,000,000. you wait for a week before you can claim the prize. the day before you go to pick it up, you notice you only guessed 5/6 numbers right, and only win $100,000. you have the power right now to pick your future. once you pick it, you will have no memory of having made this decision. it will just happen the next day. which one do you pick? also, what value would you replace the $100,000 with for you to switch to the other answer? for example, if you said 2 originally, would you say 1 if you only actually won $20,000 or $50,000 instead? if you said 1, would you switch to 2 if you won $500,000 instead? where's the tipping point? is anyone going to claim that as long as they win $10,001 or more, they would go with 2 no matter what? 
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#3
03-30-2007, 02:56 AM
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Re: Future expectations of Happiness
Can we assume that in option two you didn't use any of your future purchasing power and will not end up in debt after not being able to collect more than $100,000?
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#4
03-30-2007, 04:02 AM
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Re: Future expectations of Happiness
[ QUOTE ]
Can we assume that in option two you didn't use any of your future purchasing power and will not end up in debt after not being able to collect more than $100,000? [/ QUOTE ] Of course we can, otherwise it would be a completely different question. That said, I'd rather take the 100,000 than the 10,000, but I'd obivously take the 10k rather than the 10,001. I'd say the tipping point is around 50,000 for me (I'm a poor student).
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#5
03-30-2007, 09:02 AM
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Re: Future expectations of Happiness
[ QUOTE ]
is anyone going to claim that as long as they win $10,001 or more, they would go with 2 no matter what? [/ QUOTE ] Yes and it's not even close. Make the waiting time a year, the payout difference much closer and it is more interesting (though, honestly, it still isn't all that interesting).
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#7
03-30-2007, 11:23 AM
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Re: Future expectations of Happiness
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] is anyone going to claim that as long as they win $10,001 or more, they would go with 2 no matter what? [/ QUOTE ] Yes and it's not even close. Make the waiting time a year, the payout difference much closer and it is more interesting (though, honestly, it still isn't all that interesting). [/ QUOTE ]on a scale from 1-10, how happy do you think you will be in option 1 after collecting your 10,000 check? 10 being the happiest. and on a scale from 1-10, how happy do you think you will be in option 2 after collecting your 10,001 check?
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#8
03-30-2007, 07:57 PM
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Re: Future expectations of Happiness
If the award for 5/6 was $10mm or more, I would feel some embarrasment and chastise myself for being careless. But I wouldn't be very upset because the marginal utility of the second $10mm is nowhere near the value of the first $10mm to me.
If the prize for 5/6 was $100k or less, I would be in shock. It would indeed be a horrible day. HOWEVER, in choosing a fate ahead of time, I am ok with sacrificing happiness for the days(s) after realizing my goof, in order to have more purchasing power in the future (after I get over my mistake). So the real question is, what is the value of the loss of happiness for those few days (as you pointed out in your title!). For me I'm going to estimate that if the prize for 5/6 is $10.5k or more, I would choose Option 2. In other words, my grief for a few days is worth about $500. I may also be better at getting over things like this than other people, who may need more of a bonus in the prize money to endure the disappointment.
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#10
03-31-2007, 07:35 AM
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Re: Future expectations of Happiness
Good question. The answer for me is easily option 2 because $10,000 only pays a few debts but $100,000 is enough to increase my lifestyle quite significantly. This would offset the obvious disappointment of losing the $20M.
The tipping point is hard to measure - say $36,000? I think a lot of people are underestimating how [censored] it would be to find out you haven't won the $20M after thinking you had for a whole week.
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