I know what I would tell someone who posted this hand....

[A_PLUS]

So why didn't I listen? Why do I feel good about it?

This wasn't a brain fart, I knew what range I had to assume to make this fold. Am I turning the corner, or losing my F#*$ing mind?

Party Poker, 109$ about 25 left, maybe 100 jump at 20, 1st is 10K.
The UTG player was fairly tight in 30-40 hands (his other raises were >2.5x), this was his 1st raise from EP. Table had been pretty straight forward. Now, I am new to larger buy-ins. If this was a a 20$ MTT, I jam. At the table, I honestly thought he was trying to see a cheap flop or had AA-KK. So did a change in stakes turn me into a nit? If it matters, the stacks to my right weren't going to be calling my pushes without AT+ or a pair, so my chip situation wasn't very bad average was probably around 80-90 or so. thoughts?

**basically this I felt like if i was getting called, it was AA-KK, and I didnt think he folded often enough.


Blinds: t3000/t6000
(Ante: t100)
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t101433
UTG+1: t43010
MP1: t33432
MP2: t48864
MP3: t57416
A_PLUS: t53341
Button: t205021
SB: t106379
BB: t76532

Pre-flop: (9 players) A_PLUS is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to t12000</font>, 4 folds, A_PLUS folds, 3 folds.
Uncalled bets: t6000 returned to UTG.

Results:
Final pot: t15900

[eBo]

Yeah this is pretty bad. Jam this everytime.

I think the more interesting issue is becoming too weak/tight when moving up in buy ins.

[mikeJ]

You need a very exceptional read to fold here. I would shove. btw, this is my regular buy-in level.

edited to say: it could be AA/KK, but this could very well be something marginal like AT/77 or something speculative like 87s, his range isn't exactly QQ+/AK. And he is calling w/ worse hands than JJ when you shove. w/ 10 bbs, you cannot pass on this spot.

-mike

[udbrky]

I'd call. You've got a healthy stack. If you hit your J and you're right about his range, you're stacking him. So, you're calling 12k to win 101k. That can go a long way towards a 1st place finish.

Thought you had 533k. Oops.

Yeah, push. you've got 8 bb. You've gotta go with a good hand. this is a good hand.

[skier_5]

dude, you have JJ and &lt;10bb. I think folding sucks and you need to jam here.

[betgo]

This is kind of read-dependent. UTG is a big stack, so his raises might be looser.

I would generally "resteal" here. You say he doesn't fold much but only calls with AA/KK. That is not consistent. It is very favorable for you when villain folds 99 or AQ or whatever or when you get called by AK or 99. If villain is making a loose raise UTG, he usually has to fold.

[nath]

i hate this fold, obv

also

[ QUOTE ]
You say he doesn't fold much but only calls with AA/KK. That is not consistent.

[/ QUOTE ]

[AceLuby]

[ QUOTE ]
This is kind of read-dependent. UTG is a big stack, so his raises might be looser.

I would generally "resteal" here. You say he doesn't fold much but only calls with AA/KK. That is not consistent. It is very favorable for you when villain folds 99 or AQ or whatever or when you get called by AK or 99. If villain is making a loose raise UTG, he usually has to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the above is true (he's only calling w/ AA or KK) then we have a TON of FE and absolutely need to push here. I think you'll get looked up often enough by underpairs to make this move extremely profitable. Vote: w/t

[Foucault]

You aren't deep enough to fold this, though it is closer than a lot of people are assuming. Party UTG raises late game are generally to be respected.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
You say he doesn't fold much but only calls with AA/KK. That is not consistent.

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically, I am saying that I thought this was a bad attempt to see the flop with a speculative hand, or AA-KK. I thought it was AA-KK much more often. I think players will raise more if the know they may have to call a 5-9xBB push for 1/2 of there stack, if they dont have a big pair.

You can't use the traditional hand range analysis to see how often he has AA-KK here. B/c I dont think there are any other hands that he would play like this with as much certainty as AA-KK. Lets say I assume he plays AA like this 90% of the time, I think he only plays AK like this 10% of the time. So even though he has AK 3x as often, I still expect him to have AA here more often than AK.

Do you guys really think that someone who typically raises 3xBB, switches to 2xBB UTG, with a table full of stacks waiting to jam AJ, doesnt look pretty bad for JJ. Lets ignore pot odds and my stack for a second, I am worried about my read for the time being.