Comments on this hand please (PLO8 $400)

[niss]

Villain Button is an aggressive donk who goes to showdown way too often (something like 45%) and unfortunately for him his W$SD is about the same 45%. He will fall in love with a hand pre-flop and won't get away from it no matter how little it matches the board. At any sign of weakness from another player, he will bang his hand. Translation -> big payday possible against him.

Villain SB plays every hand. If I recall correctly, his VPIP is about 80%. Not very good post-flop either, will call most flop bets.

Last time around the table I stacked the Button when I got lucky with KKxx on a board of 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I was in EP and checked to him, he led out, the other 5 players in the hand folded. I c/r'ed him (something I probably would not have done with someone else) and we got it all in on the flop. He turned over A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] XX, hit 10[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the turn, and then the river paired the 10 and I scooped. Suffice it to say, his chat indicated that he didn't take that one well (*shudder with fear*). He seems to be the type of player that would make a point of going back after me at the first opportunity.

So this hand ...

Stacks are about:

Hero $800
Villain (Button) $350
Villain (SB) $100

I am dealt 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

UTG calls and it's folded around to me and I raise to $18. I raise because I haven't played many hands, and the few hands I've played I have limped pre-flop. I've been pretty much card dead and don't like conveying a passive image. I also would like to buy the button.

Incidentally, I like to play 2-3-4 hands that have a suited K or maybe Q. Since the hand really likes to see an Ace, we can add nicely to the hand's value if the Ace that spikes is suited to the King. I think the hand is easy to play because if I don't spike an Ace and another wheel card on the flop, it's probably an easy bail ... although I am hoping to buy the button and take advantage of a free card if appropriate.

You may disagree with a pfr raise here, which is fine ... but I do it more for meta-game reasons than because I think it's the absolute best play with this hand in this situation.

Button calls the $18, SB calls the $18, and the other two fold.

Flop is A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB checks to me, I bet pot (about $60). Button calls, SB raises all-in (but not enough to re-open betting), I call and Button calls.

Turn is 10[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Hero?

Edit: I should add that I am 99% sure that, if I check the turn, Button will bet the pot.

[Mendacious]

The way I see it, why bet this? If you check and he pots it, you still have half your stack, AND you can feel fairly certain that he will call you no matter what on the river.

Also, it doesn't seem like you have any fold equity with this donk on the turn.

If you happen to blank the river at least you save $200.

PM screenname of villian please.

[BigBadBabar]

i may be missing something but isn't this a tremendous flop for our hand? i'm happy to get all in.

[Assani Fisher]

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i may be missing something but isn't this a tremendous flop for our hand? i'm happy to get all in.

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You're missing the fact that he got as much in as he could on the flop and the turn was horrible for our hand.

[Mendacious]

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i may be missing something but isn't this a tremendous flop for our hand? i'm happy to get all in.

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You're missing the fact that he got as much in as he could on the flop and the turn was horrible for our hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

The turn was not "horrible for our hand", it might have given us 9 more outs to the high, and we are probably the favorite, but imho, there is no reason to get it all in here against a bad player when we still have no hand and villian is dumb enough to pay us on the river.

I don't think that way you exploit bad players is to shove all the chips in with small advantages (which may be the right play against good aggressive players). The way to exploit bad players is to get the money in when you are WAY ahead and they are too dumb to realize it. Players like this you can just murder on the river.

[bbartlog]

Well, you can't fold here. And against any made high your equity is probably around 50%, so there's no huge gain from getting it all in either. And if button is a station like you describe, you're not going to gain much fold equity by betting out. Ideally, you'd like to check here and then blast away if river brings a low or a spade, but it sounds like checking won't stop all the chips from going in. Would a blocking bet work against this guy? If so we should do it; if not let metagame dictate our move...

[Assani Fisher]

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He seems to be the type of player that would make a point of going back after me at the first opportunity.


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I am dealt 2 3 4 K

UTG calls and it's folded around to me and I raise to $18. I raise because I haven't played many hands, and the few hands I've played I have limped pre-flop. I've been pretty much card dead and don't like conveying a passive image. I also would like to buy the button.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you have a player that you think is very likely to play back at you out of spite and you decide to raise a very marginal hand into him? If your read on button is correct, then theres no way I'd raise here.

Also judging by your description of the players at the table it doesn't sound like they'll have noticed that you havn't played many pots. Moreover I've found that when you win a big pot, people will usually forget how tight you've been playing previously.

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You may disagree with a pfr raise here, which is fine ... but I do it more for meta-game reasons than because I think it's the absolute best play with this hand in this situation.

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It sounds to me like you're trying to justify what you know is a very marginal raise here. With that said, better to make an aggressive mistake than a passive one.


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Flop is A 8 J

[/ QUOTE ]

jackpot!


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SB checks to me, I bet pot (about $60). Button calls, SB raises all-in (but not enough to re-open betting), I call and Button calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

sounds good


[ QUOTE ]
Turn is 10.

Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

First I'll analyze it without your edit....

He most likely has two things:

-23 low draw, maybe with a weak flush draw too and maybe 234

-a set(or maybe 2 pair) that is scared you have AA due to your PF raise

However, judging by your description of him he doesn't sound like the type of player that would play timid with a set here. Basically the question you have to ask is this: Does he want to see the river cheaply too? Clearly with 234 he does, and if he has that then hes most likely checking behind you.

If he has a set then I don't think it matters what you do because all the money is getting in here on the turn no matter what(and you have no fold equity if he has a set and your description of him is accurate).

The one postive of betting him out would be that if you just hit the 23 low, you wouldn't have to split with him(and get quartered by SB). However theres always the possibility that you'll quarter him for the entire side pot with the flush and the low.

I think I'd check and call if he bets anything here because I don't see any hands that he could have that he'd fold if you bet yet bet if you checked.


[ QUOTE ]
Edit: I should add that I am 99% sure that, if I check the turn, Button will bet the pot.


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You're either exagerating, have a ridiculously good read on villian, or are deluded. However if the 2nd option is the truth and he would bet 99% of the time even with just a low draw, then I'd go ahead and bet I guess.

[niss]

Assani, I appreciate your comments and hope this doesn't come across as impolite. That's not my intention.

I don't want to turn this into a debate about the pfr. I thought I adequately explained the reasons for the pfr, but perhaps I didn't, and I fully understand that nothing on a message board can substitute for being at the table. Suffice it to say that, while I can see disagreeing with a pfr, to call it a "mistake" is really wrong, IMHO, for a number of reasons. While I think I listed some of them, to respond briefly to one that you raised ... by raising pre-flop, I believe I make it *less* likely that he will get involved in the hand with me. As I mentioned, one reason I raised is to buy position. If I thought I was not likely to get position, I would have been less likely to raise.

I should have mentioned that Button's VPIP is low 40s ... so he does seem to show some kind of selection pre-flop.

I'm going to save responding to comments about the rest of the hand (and giving results) until others post. I appreciate everyone that has responded so far.

[Assani Fisher]

[ QUOTE ]
Assani, I appreciate your comments and hope this doesn't come across as impolite. That's not my intention.

I don't want to turn this into a debate about the pfr. I thought I adequately explained the reasons for the pfr, but perhaps I didn't, and I fully understand that nothing on a message board can substitute for being at the table. Suffice it to say that, while I can see disagreeing with a pfr, to call it a "mistake" is really wrong, IMHO, for a number of reasons. While I think I listed some of them, to respond briefly to one that you raised ... by raising pre-flop, I believe I make it *less* likely that he will get involved in the hand with me. As I mentioned, one reason I raised is to buy position. If I thought I was not likely to get position, I would have been less likely to raise.

I should have mentioned that Button's VPIP is low 40s ... so he does seem to show some kind of selection pre-flop.

I'm going to save responding to comments about the rest of the hand (and giving results) until others post. I appreciate everyone that has responded so far.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not impolite at all man, and I can understand that you just want to focus on the turn aspect of the hand. Icy pots, friend.


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The turn was not "horrible for our hand", it might have given us 9 more outs to the high

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In my haste I failed to notice the club draw we added on the turn. Point noted.

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I don't think that way you exploit bad players is to shove all the chips in with small advantages (which may be the right play against good aggressive players). The way to exploit bad players is to get the money in when you are WAY ahead and they are too dumb to realize it. Players like this you can just murder on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
Agreed, but if hes on a draw and misses then obviously hes not going to pay us off on the river. Do agree with your overall point.

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Would a blocking bet work against this guy?

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You could bet 1/2 pot on the turn and then check/fold if you miss or set him all-in on the river. It will save you a few dollars if you miss but still give you the full upside if you hit.


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This is an interesting aspect. Perhaps its overthinking here to use 3rd level thinking with this opponent, but I would think that you betting a small portion of your stack could make it look like you definitely want to make sure you get it all in and are trying to string him along slowly to have it all in at the river.

The more I think about it, the more I like a bet in the $75-100 range.

[ QUOTE ]
As I thought would be obvious -- but I guess not -- the "99% sure" statement is a bit of an exaggeration. My read is that he bets when an aggressive player shows weakness, so I'd expect him to do that here. But there's no guarantee. Better?


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I think this is a totally different situation though for 2 reasons:

1. He'd be betting into a dry side pot(and furthermore even if he eliminated you, the guy thats still in the hand has shown a lot of strength by check raising the flop)

2. Its possible that he is on a draw with a hand like 23 of spades.

While #2 alone doesn't guarantee a check, I think that when you couple it with #1 it does. Like I said earlier, if you're up against a set then all of the money is getting in here regardless of what you do, so you should focus on how he would play other hands.

The only other hand than a set or a draw would be 2 pair. I guess I could kinda see how if you bet big even when the straight came out that would show extreme strength and would cause him to think that you must have AA and fold. But even still you have no hand at the moment(king high) and have an all in opponent to beat.


Edited to add:

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I've got to guess that he's folding a river that's a high spade

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If he also has 2 spades, based upon your description of him, I think you could get it all in with a check/raise on the river.

[TomG]

The side pot is empty. In this case, getting the button to fold doesn't win the pot. We still have to win at showdown against the all-in small blind. So the idea of betting to generate "fold equity" in this situation is worth less than usual. However, we know that the button is often going to bet all-in if we check. Therefore, it remains the better option to lead out. The question then becomes, will a blocking more effectively handle the situation? The more I think about it, the more I like betting about 1/2 of button's remaining stack. There isn't much downside to this bet since if button wanted to go all-in, the blocking bet doesn't make it any easier for him to do so. A blocking bet effectively commits button to a showdown for a lesser price than betting the full pot.