tough spot with AQ

[jfish]

no reads, but im getting great odds on river and im wondering if 33/77 doesnt raise turn given the increasing drawiness of the board. that being said, how often is this really a bluff? play diff on any street? b/f riv? c/c riv?


Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $5/$10 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

Storkdelamork: $1,679.00
Transkilla: $1,187.00
The__Whale4: $1,052.00
Hero: $2,798.00
frogbros: $1,491.00
IRunSoGood: $1,005.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">The__Whale4 raises to $35.00</font>, Hero calls $35.00, frogbros calls $35.00, 3 folds

Flop: ($120) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
The__Whale4 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $87.00</font>, frogbros calls $87.00, The__Whale4 folds

Turn: ($294) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $219.00</font>, frogbros calls $219.00

River: ($732) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $557.00</font>, <font color="red">frogbros raises all-in to $1,150.00</font>, Hero calls $593.00

[AJFenix]

I mighta sized bets differently, but line woulda been same except I'd fold river to the shove

[jfish]

6 combinations of sets and i am getting ~4:1. that means i have to find 1.5 combinations of hands that are bluffing in order to make it profitable, right?

[jfish]

and glancing over the numbers, im guessing you would bet more on flop and turn and less on river?

[AJFenix]

[ QUOTE ]
and glancing over the numbers, im guessing you would bet more on flop and turn and less on river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, sounds about right

[jfish]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
and glancing over the numbers, im guessing you would bet more on flop and turn and less on river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, sounds about right

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree with this, was 7 tabling so i couldnt focus THAT much on betsizing today.

im still not completely convinced that this is an "easy" fold given the odds and his v limited range. plus hes unknown.

[Jay Riall]

[ QUOTE ]
and glancing over the numbers, im guessing you would bet more on flop and turn and less on river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree with this, and you are almost never going to be shown a bluff or a worse hand value-raising on the river, pretty easy fold imo.

[sauce123]

jfish- i think u gotta check this river against a complete unknown or bet smaller- not being results oriented btw

[AJFenix]

I don't expect to be shown a bluff here bawss [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[ddubois]

[ QUOTE ]
how often is this really a bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]
Never?

Maybe at 100/200+ there's some leveling going on where this can be a bluff, but at MSNL no one is going to bluff laying those odds.