|
|
|
|
#1
05-07-2007, 07:18 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Risk of Ruin over 7 events
Hello!
A friend will be staking me for several smaller WSOP events, specifically three $1,500 events, two $2,000 events and two $1,000 rebuy events. I'm trying to help him determine his Risk of Ruin (how likely he is to make exactly $0) over this very small sample. We both understand that the accuracy of this figure will be quite low considering the absurd sample size, but we want to figure it out anyway. Online my average buyin is ~$70, i regularly place very high in the $75FTP and the $22rebuy on PStars. My online ROI is roughly 80% over 2000+ tournaments, my live ROI is ~350% over 50 games including 4 final tables with significant ($5k+) cashes. I don't know my ROI in these very large, slow events. I expect i'll be one of the best players in each of the events i play in, perhaps with the exception of the $1k rebuys. Sooooo, how do i calculate my RoR over this small sample? My friend understands that my average result and the expected actual result will be quite different. I'd presume i'll make it to the $$$ in 2-3 events with a decent shot of getting 1 Final Table over the course of 7 events. Any ideas? 
|
|
#2
05-07-2007, 09:06 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Risk of Ruin over 7 events
" I expect i'll be one of the best players in each of the events i play in, perhaps with the exception of the $1k rebuys."
how do you figure? that is a bold statement, i don't know anything about you but this seems pretty unlikely
|
|
#7
07-24-2007, 11:31 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Risk of Ruin over 7 events
[ QUOTE ]
Update please... [/ QUOTE ] Seeing as he's had a week or so to come on here and tell us all how he "told us so", I'm going to go with 0-7 in the cashes department Alex. That is, if his head even fit through the poker room doors.
|
|
#8
07-24-2007, 07:54 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Risk of Ruin over 7 events
[ QUOTE ]
Update please... [/ QUOTE ]I'm thinkin the OP went busto and didn't cash in a single event. Given his inflated ego, I'm almost 100% certain we would have heard from him by now if he had even cashed in one event with a big "I told ya so!" Having heard nothing, it's safe to assume he was humbled by the field and didn't cash a single time. I bet his backer is thrilled with his mad poker skillz!
|
|
#9
05-08-2007, 05:31 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Risk of Ruin over 7 events
[ QUOTE ]
" I expect i'll be one of the best players in each of the events i play in, perhaps with the exception of the $1k rebuys." how do you figure? that is a bold statement, i don't know anything about you but this seems pretty unlikely [/ QUOTE ] Thanks for all the responses. I agree my statement is bold and perhaps optimistic. I use this assumption since it would seem to simplify the "problem". We can easiest make presumptions about 3 types of players, awful ones with almost no chance, average ones with a chance reflected based on commonly known statistics, and phenomenal players with figures that exceed currently available benchmarks and may outperform most reasonable guesses. Since i know i'm waaaay better than average, it seems most useful to presume i'm the absolute best and adjust my guesstimates accordingly, rather than starting with the presumption of average. I really want to simplify this analysis as much as possible, let's just assume i'm as good as any of the top known players.
|
 |
|
|
Hybrid Mode
