6/2 Box Office Wagering: The Break-Up

[llabb]

Last week's X-Men wager was easy money. This week is much more difficult. That thread got positive responses and an okay by the mods, so we'll do it again, with the caveat that although it seems off-topic, it's Internet Wagering. Some write-ups below and Cliff Notes at the bottom.

The only new release is The Break-Up, a romantic comedy starring Jennifer Aniston and Vince Vaughn. Will the high profile break-up of Jen and Brad, and the current romance of Jen and Vince bring people in to see this movie? It's the first romantic comedy in a while and has little competition, so it's got a decent shot at doing well. But at an Over/Under of 28, I don't like it enough to play it. Current lines:

Pinny:
Over 28 million -110
Under 28 million -105

WSEX:
Over 27.5 million -160
Under 27.5 million +120

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However, I do like Pinny's other wager of which movie will earn more money this weekend, The Da Vinci Code or Over the Hedge. I think it's 50-50 as to which one earns more, so I really like the Da Vinci line of +195. As poker players know, getting almost 2:1 on your money on a 1:1 shot is great!

Movie with higher weekend box office:
The Da Vinci Code +195
Over the Hedge -225

Since it could go either way, though, and with OTH having better legs, it's not nearly as strong a play as last week. If I were rating the plays on a 1-5 scale, I'd give last week's X-Men prop 5 stars, and Da Vinci over OTH 2 stars. This corresponds roughly to the units I've put on each, but everyone's units and money management systems are different.

If anyone is interested, I gave more detailed analysis on both wagers here.

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Cliff Notes: I'm not betting on The Break-Up, although I lean slightly towards the Over 28 at near even money. I am betting a small amount (2* play) on The Da Vinci Code earning more than Over the Hedge.

And while I'm at it, I'm curious, are many people interested in seeing The Break-Up?

.

[dlk9s]

My wife asked me on Thursday if we could go to an early (5:00) showing of The Break-Up. So, we're going.

Looks pretty funny to me. I saw the extended preview in the theater before the commercials starting airing - preview makes it look much funnier than the commercials.

EDIT: If I bet on this sort of thing, which I don't, I'd pick the over on the $28 million line.

[llabb]

If the Over/Under on The Break-Up is a 50-50 proposition (up to your opinion), the Under is getting towards a decent edge at 1.4:1.

Pinny:
Over 28 million -150
Under 28 million +135

WSEX:
Over 27.5 million -190
Under 27.5 million +145

[kyleb]

Wow, I just stumbled upon these posts, and I must say - this is quite interesting analysis! I am a man who loves prop bets, so I will be following in earnest. Keep up the good work!

[grinin]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, I just stumbled upon these posts, and I must say - this is quite interesting analysis! I am a man who loves prop bets, so I will be following in earnest. Keep up the good work!

[/ QUOTE ]

[MakesCents]

not sure if this affects anything (except maybe the guy taking his wife) but Mastercard is offering 2 for 1 tickets to the break up if you buy through fandango. http://www.fandango.com/mastercard/

[llabb]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, I just stumbled upon these posts, and I must say - this is quite interesting analysis! I am a man who loves prop bets, so I will be following in earnest. Keep up the good work!

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, it will get more interesting in weeks to come, as Superman, Pirates 2, and Miami Vice come out. This board probably comprises the target demographic.

Thursday is the main day to look for these threads and for the online wagers, as they close mid-day Friday.

Anecdotally, The Break-Up seems to be doing pretty well so far, similar to Wedding Crashers. It seems like more of a girls' movie, but Vince Vaughn, plus Jennifer Aniston getting near-naked probably makes it an okay date movie for a lot of guys.

[MicroBob]

I'm not very good at picking these sorts of things.

Over The Hedge looks like a winner to me.
Da Vinci Code has been fading fast.
The odds on Da Vinci look good. But I think it's a real stretch to call it a 50/50 shot.


Regarding the Break Up. I would have put this closer to the Affleck/Lopez Gigli range. It looks pretty stupid to me. But, then again, I always disliked Aniston.

I would be inclined to go with the under on this one.
but i think more and more high-schools and junior-highs are getting out across the country so that might help boost audiences.

Your point that lack of romantic-comedy competition could help push it over the top is definitely valid though. I think it will be pretty close.


I should start to get into these a bit more as I think I might not be 100% completely sucky at it if I actually worked on it.

[llabb]

Would be glad to have you weigh in on these in the future, Bob. If you want to start thinking about it, next week features Cars, which should do fabulously as all Pixar movies do. The line will be quite high as well, though, so the question is just how high.

The Break-Up is doing much better than anticipated, and should see high $30's, perhaps $40's at this point. Gotta hand it to Vince Vaughn, he's gotten to be one of the premier comedic actors currently.

The Da Vinci Code and Over the Hedge are running neck and neck, only $0.15 apart right now. It'll be a close one, probably with OTH having the edge over the rest of the weekend as families go see it. Still, it has a chance and was the right side of the wager at those odds. Even if you gave OTH a 60-40 advantage over Da Vinci (which is too much, but let's just say), then a wager with 2:1 odds is still great.

[MicroBob]

"Gotta hand it to Vince Vaughn, he's gotten to be one of the premier comedic actors currently."


even though he really isn't that funny.


"Even if you gave OTH a 60-40 advantage over Da Vinci (which is too much, but let's just say), then a wager with 2:1 odds is still great."



yes, very true.

I do some sports-betting so I understand that if you thought DaVinci was only a 40% chance of winning then getting them at such odds are quite good.
And if you really thought it was a 50% chance as you did then it's a steal.

Just like betting the moneyline on underdogs in baseball. And this doesn't make it that much different than poker when your 4:1 draw will pay 6:1 if you hit.


But there are likely people reading this thread who are beginners at this sports-betting or prop-betting type stuff so going over some of the very basics and explaining why it's a good bet is probably a good idea.


Also - I suspect Cars is going to do extremely well next week.
How does Fathers' Day play into the equation?