3/6 Live; JTo OTB, with a Great, but scarey flop

[BigAlChicago]

Live 3/6 this past weekend. The table seems relatively loose passive with one or two solid players and no maniacs at the time of this hand. Hero has black JTo OTB. There are about 5 limpers to me, and I limp as well. SB completes, BB Raises, and everyone calls. 8 to the flop for 16 SBs.

The flop is AKQ all diamonds. After the SB checks, the BB bets. Roughly, 3-4 of the limpers call.

What is the plan?

[Mike]

Well you have fourteen cards against you (seven players), and ten diamonds left in the deck. It would be very rare for a diamond not to be in someone's hand. If the board pairs...or a diamond arrives and there is action and reaction, you should consider throwing your hand away assuming your JTo does not pair and is not a diamond.


There are situations (mostly at the turn and river) where the pot can be 20 BB, and your big hand is bad. For these times a crying call is not the correct play.

[nightwood]

Only a flush or a boat (or quads) can beat you. Since there was no PFR I guess nobody holds QQ+.

Assuming in the players hands are some diamonds you have an approximate chance of 65-75% that no diamonds will come on turn and river.

I'd say 3bet the flop for value (don't want to drag people out and no one with a diamond will fold).

If any diamond appears fold. If the board pairs once .. don't bother.

But I'm only a noob.

[BigAlChicago]

I must not have been clear.

The BB raised preflop, then led the flop. It is just one bet to me on the button.

The question is whether to raise the flop or just call.

By the way, the texture of this game is that most flopped flushes only come to life on the turn. It seems like most of the players like to slow play their two card flushes, no matter how vulnerable they may be to overcards in the trump suit.

[nightwood]

Damn, my fault.

But I'd raise anyway.

[Bigka79]

[ QUOTE ]
Only a flush or a boat (or quads) can beat you. Since there was no PFR I guess nobody holds QQ+.
Assuming in the players hands are some diamonds you have an approximate chance of 65-75% that no diamonds will come on turn and river.

I'd say 3bet the flop for value (don't want to drag people out and no one with a diamond will fold).

If any diamond appears fold. If the board pairs once .. don't bother.

But I'm only a noob.

[/ QUOTE ]

you fail. theres a pfr from the BB which very much suggests QQ+ unless hes a loose moron.

i raise this until i see otherwise. i would always cap a flop because i dont think a flush is going ot jump into action until the BB on the turn. if we Raise here and get calls all around i bet turn when checked to me unless paired or 4flushed. then i just ditch the hand if its bet into me unless i got a read that someone would bluff a flush or bet 3 of a kind. then i raise


thats just my BB

[mntndrew]

I would raise now for value. You're probably ahead, but there are a lot of cards you don't want to see. However, with the bet coming from your left, there isn't much of a way to protect your hand, here or on the turn.

While it's likely that you're facing diamond draws, you could also be facing lots of hands that have chop draws (KJ/QT types of hands). You shouldn't often be raising for information, but you may gain some here as a side benefit. After all, you could be drawing dead (I'm assuming you don't have a diamond in your hand), and I'd hate to try to raise on the big streets and find out then. I'd probably slow down if someone played this flop very aggressively but would still call down as long as a 4th diamond didn't hit and the turn/river action didn't get out of control.

There's also the off chance that you're facing mostly pair/straight draw hands, with hands like 99-66 with a single diamond that might peel for one bet but fold to a raise.

Also, obviously, be able to get away from the hand by not overcalling if a fourth diamond hits.

[f97tosc]

I would raise for value.

The board is scary, but ~60-65% of the time there will be no more diamond on the turn or river. Obviously, you will not win that often, but with 4-5 players in there is plenty of margin for a value raise.

[Mygtar]

I assume you have no diamonds?

Call and hope the SB doesn't c/r. This is a draw heavy board in a big pot. Do not assume someone has the flush just yet. They may but they may also have a pair, 2 pair, flush draw, straight draw etc. I would not raise as NOBODY is folding. Hope a non-diamond hits the TURN.

Peace,
Mygtar

[James.]

i call and raise a nondiamond turn.