$100 nl: TPTK vs. solid TAG regular

[guaranteedBluff]

Villain in this hand is a solid regular at Stars $100, he plays 13/7/4 or so. Have seen him stack others with sets, never seen a big river bluff though.

My image is also TAG, maybe 14/8 or so - I do not often raise out of the blinds without a strong hand.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($89.50)
Button ($53.85)
SB ($54.70)
Hero ($105)
UTG ($45.65)
UTG+1 ($86.95)
MP1 ($106.50)
MP2 ($115.90)
MP3 ($61.40)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls $1, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls $6, Button folds.

Flop: ($16.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, MP2 calls $12.

Turn: ($40.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $25</font>, Hero ???

River: ($90.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $71.9 (All-In)</font>, Hero ???

Final Pot: $223.40

[Suigin406]

he prolly limp+called with a pair, i don't think a tight player like this would bluff u off here, u said it urself too...AQ is doubtful, so i'm thinking ur beat with 77...

y not lead turn since we have the nut flush draw to go along with the A?? even if he might have flush, i think b/f is a good idea, unless u wanted to get to showdown cheap, which i don't think is the right play with this board and our hand...

[billzfan86]

He flopped a set of 7s on you. If hes a predictible multitable TAG like you said what else could he have? He would have checked behind on the turn with just 1 pair.

[dirtysanchez]

bet/fold the turn, as played just fold it anyway

[Fonkey123]

This is insta-fold.

[AFCBeer]

I think I bet this turn and check/fold to a reasonable river bet. If you are going to call $25 on the turn you may as well bet it.

Obviously if your turn bet gets raised you have an insta-fold but at least you have saved yourself from a tricky river decision.

[D.L.M.]

i think that well see a bluff more often than you think, but not more often than 25%, so i fold.