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#1
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$225: 2nd chip stack bubble
Pretty good hand especially with the blind size but is it worth the risk of pushing? Any other options?
*Also, what converter is working the best now? PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (4 handed) TightPoker converter Hero (t3590) SB (t1175) BB (t7575) UTG (t1160) Preflop: Hero is Button with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG folds. Hero? Next hand. PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (4 handed) TightPoker converter Hero (t3540) Button (t825) SB (t8025) BB (t1110) Preflop: Hero is UTG with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666"> Hero? |
#2
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Re: $225: 2nd chip stack bubble
Those both look like folds to me. Looks like neither shortstack will survive the blinds next time around.
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#3
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Re: $225: 2nd chip stack bubble
both pushes should be +ev. i think in the 2nd one you have decent FE vs the bb because he can still fold and let the other guy go out first.
but, if you fold, there is a good chance of someone getting busted in both hands and that is gonna be +ev as well, probably more so than the ev you gain by pushing. this is close but with two shortys folding looks best to me. |
#4
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Re: $225: 2nd chip stack bubble
What kind of calling range do you think big stack is on? That's huge. Unless he's a donkey on a pretty loose calling range they're probably both shoves.
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#5
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Re: $225: 2nd chip stack bubble
A lot depends on ranges, but they both look pretty thin for anything but the tightest ranges for big stack. How much do people spite call at the $225s?
Also a consideration, if a shorty doesn't bust in the second hand it seems likely that you're going to be forced to fold your BB to a big stack shove on the next hand a lot of the time. |
#6
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Re: $225: 2nd chip stack bubble
I think the 66 from the button is a push without bigstack being an enormous idiot calling off close to 20%
SB should be coming along a reasonable amount of time, with only 825 after posting, which helps your cause. Hand 2 is an easy shove w ith all of them calling like 30%? Its plus EV all the wya up to 50%, close to breakeven with all of them on 50% (and then gets better than breakeven after that) Even with both shortys at 7% and bigstack at 27% t his is still a clear push w/ 55 here for 1100 dead money. The only way I see this being bad is if both shortys are c alling tight and big st ack calling very loose |
#7
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Re: $225: 2nd chip stack bubble
I think readless, which as I have tried to say you should NEVER be at this point, 66 is a shove and 55 is a fold. Only if bigstack has been calling everything, or if it's some spite-calling regular, would I fold 66.
The problem with the 55 hand, is even if button and SB fold, you're likely to be racing with BB, who may not be smart enough to fold. Actually now that I think about it, if BB is solid, this could be a shove, since he should fold w/o a hand, hoping for button to bust first. Very read dependent on the 55 hand. "Unknown, no reads", right darin? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] |
#8
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Re: $225: 2nd chip stack bubble
[ QUOTE ]
I think the 66 from the button is a push without bigstack being an enormous idiot calling off close to 20% SB should be coming along a reasonable amount of time, with only 825 after posting, which helps your cause. Hand 2 is an easy shove w ith all of them calling like 30%? Its plus EV all the wya up to 50%, close to breakeven with all of them on 50% (and then gets better than breakeven after that) Even with both shortys at 7% and bigstack at 27% t his is still a clear push w/ 55 here for 1100 dead money. The only way I see this being bad is if both shortys are c alling tight and big st ack calling very loose [/ QUOTE ] scotty, how much equity do think you gain by folding? i was trying to run some pushes using wiz/sngpt, but these programs really dont work in these types of situations when two calls are very probably. so therefore i had to use the advanced mathematical technique of guessing there was more equity to gain by folding. |
#9
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Re: $225: 2nd chip stack bubble
[ QUOTE ]
Hand 2 is an easy shove w ith all of them calling like 30%? Its plus EV all the wya up to 50%, close to breakeven with all of them on 50% (and then gets better than breakeven after that) [/ QUOTE ] I assume you're doing this in SNGPT. It's assuming that if you get called by button, the other two automatically fold, which seems quite unlikely. To see the difference, assume both shorties never call and leave big stack at 50%. Anyway, if either of the shorties busts after you fold your equity gain is in the neighborhood of 2%. There's got to be a very good chance of that happening if you fold, though that'll be balanced some by the times it doesn't happen and big stack shoves your BB next hand. Also, does the BB really fold that much here with half his stack already in the middle? Even if the button folds it's not like he's guaranteed to get ITM by folding to a shove from you or the big stack. |
#10
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Re: $225: 2nd chip stack bubble
Big stack is unknown.
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